Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Est. EPS
$3.89
Est. revenue
$871M
Implied move
±5.7%
EPS beat rate
88%
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, as well as wealth management. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in serving communities in Puerto Rico and the U.S. mainland.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Popular, Inc. reported an EPS of $4.35, exceeding expectations by 17.89%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.73% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+13.00%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.15%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's strong performance in previous quarters. However, there are concerns about potential economic headwinds affecting loan growth.
Bull case
If Popular, Inc. continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a positive stock reaction, especially if loan growth remains robust.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing loan growth, it could lead to a significant drop in the stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the net interest margin be for the quarter?
This metric is crucial for understanding the bank's profitability and efficiency, especially in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Q2
How has loan growth trended this quarter?
Loan growth directly impacts revenue; any slowdown could raise concerns about demand and future earnings.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±13.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on Popular, Inc.'s net interest margin, which could significantly boost profitability this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The bank has a history of outperforming EPS estimates, suggesting it may continue this trend.
Options are pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent economic indicators suggest increased borrowing activity, which could favor loan growth.
Key risk
If net interest margin exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating the sustainability of Popular, Inc.'s growth amid potential economic challenges, making these metrics critical.
Bull confirmed if
If loan growth exceeds 10% year-over-year, it would confirm strong demand and support a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
A loan growth rate below 5% would raise concerns about the bank's future profitability and could confirm a bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.75%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.75%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.7% while BPOP has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
16.4%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
94.17%
of float
Insider
1.86%
of float
Holders
640
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
4,714,748 sh · $733.2M
7.39%
9.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Popular, Inc. beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.29%, confirming a positive outlook for future growth.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 10.21%, which could lead to increased skepticism about its growth trajectory.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,487,199 sh · $697.8M
7.04%
-7.6%
Blackrock Inc.
3,994,322 sh · $621.2M
6.26%
-2.1%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,126,242 sh · $486.2M
4.90%
-3.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,824,478 sh · $439.3M
4.43%
-4.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.