Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Aug 10, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.37
EPS est.
$-0.35
EPS surprise
-5.71%
1-day move
-20.08%
Bitdeer's earnings report shows strong revenue growth but a loss in EPS, which contributed to a significant drop in stock price by over 20%. The company is expanding its AI infrastructure and has seen a massive increase in its self-mining hash rate, indicating potential for future growth. However, the lack of guidance may have left investors uncertain about the company's direction.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.37 | N/A | -5.71% |
| Revenue | $228.8 million | N/A | N/A |
| Self-mining Hash Rate | 73 exahash per second | N/A | +342% |
| Bitcoin Mined | 2,694 BTC | N/A | N/A |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $31.1 million | N/A | +575% |
Management expressed optimism about the growth in self-mining and AI Cloud revenue. They highlighted the importance of their new lease in Norway for future operations.
We are excited about our recent colocation lease in Norway, which will enhance our AI infrastructure.
Our self-mining operations have seen significant growth, reflecting our strategic investments.
Bitdeer Technologies Group operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software. The company is significant in the context of the growing demand for software solutions in various industries, particularly in cryptocurrency mining and blockchain technology.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Bitdeer reported an EPS of -$0.68, missing estimates by a significant margin. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 11.57% despite the disappointing earnings.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-356.20%
Avg 1-day reaction
-7.44%
Overall, expectations for Bitdeer's upcoming earnings are uncertain, given the lack of analyst estimates and recent performance. Investors are likely looking for signs of recovery after several quarters of losses.
Bull case
If Bitdeer can demonstrate improved operational efficiency and revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to report significant losses and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and will it show improvement from the previous quarter?
Given the company's history of missing EPS estimates, any improvement could signal a positive trend and boost investor confidence.
Q2
How does Bitdeer plan to address its revenue generation challenges moving forward?
Understanding the company's strategy for revenue growth is crucial for assessing its long-term viability and market position.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
±5.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Bitdeer's potential for a recovery, especially if the company can showcase any positive operational changes.
Supporting evidence
Bitdeer's stock has shown resilience with a positive reaction following poor earnings, indicating investor interest.
The options market is pricing in a large move, suggesting that traders expect significant news or changes.
Key risk
If Bitdeer can report an EPS improvement, it could challenge the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Bitdeer can show signs of recovery in profitability and revenue generation after a series of disappointing earnings.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of -$0.50 or better, indicating a narrowing of losses, could confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -$0.75 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about the company's future.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±51.66%
Historical Avg
±13.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move for Bitdeer’s stock, indicating high volatility expectations around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±51.7% while BTDR has averaged ±13.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.2%
30d HV
107.4%
Cross-company pattern from 28 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 8 of 28 (29%)
This setup has occurred 28 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 20 of 28 (71%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 8.1%, with a raw directional average of +3.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Bitdeer beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 11.57%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss again, history suggests a decline of about 6.15%, which could further erode investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.