Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.31
EPS est.
$0.36
EPS surprise
-13.89%
1-day move
-8.72%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust that focuses on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate properties. Operating in the financial sector, BXMT plays a crucial role in providing financing solutions in a dynamic real estate market, which can be influenced by interest rates and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.21, which was significantly below the expected $0.34, leading to a negative stock reaction. This miss raised concerns about the company's ability to manage its loan portfolio effectively.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+61.64%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.87%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about BXMT's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent earnings miss has created uncertainty around the company's performance.
Bull case
If BXMT can exceed the consensus EPS of $0.35, it may signal a strong recovery in its loan performance and investor confidence.
Bear case
A repeat of the previous quarter's miss could indicate ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate market, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.35Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its loan portfolio.
Revenue
91MRevenue figures help assess the company's growth and the effectiveness of its lending strategies.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Can BXMT achieve an EPS of $0.35 or higher?
This figure is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the last quarter's disappointing results.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the commercial real estate sector?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on opportunities.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate BXMT's potential for a strong recovery, given its recent strategic shifts and market positioning.
Supporting evidence
BXMT has a history of bouncing back after earnings misses, as seen in previous quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historically realized, indicating potential for a surprise.
Management's commitment to improving asset quality could lead to better-than-expected results.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $0.25, it could invalidate the recovery narrative and lead to a reassessment of BXMT's market position.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will determine if BXMT can recover from its recent earnings miss and align with market expectations.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.35 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in BXMT's financial health.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.25 would signal ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.36%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
24.6%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$20,091.42
1,725 sh
1 insider
Net
$20,091.42
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$20,091.42
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
69.85%
of float
Insider
1.32%
of float
Holders
434
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
24,981,252 sh · $279.8M
14.82%
2.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a recovery narrative.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to a cautious reaction, with the stock likely remaining flat as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline of approximately 1.5%, reinforcing concerns about BXMT's loan management and market positioning.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $11.65
1,725 sh
$20,091.42
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackstone Inc
9,283,323 sh · $104.0M
5.51%
Flat
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,895,012 sh · $99.6M
5.28%
1.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
7,158,499 sh · $80.2M
4.25%
-0.8%
State Street Corporation
6,416,582 sh · $71.9M
3.81%
4.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.