Equity Profile

BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$2.8B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

$0.34

Loan Origination Volume

This metric reflects the company's ability to generate new business and is crucial for assessing growth potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate. As a player in the financial sector, BXMT is influenced by interest rates and the overall health of the real estate market, making its performance relevant to investors interested in mortgage-backed securities and real estate investments.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.21, falling short of the expected $0.34, leading to a stock decline of 4.65% the following day. This miss raised concerns about the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst a challenging interest rate environment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving loan origination processes.
Commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Plans to enhance investor communications regarding market conditions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for BXMT are cautious, given the recent earnings miss and the current economic climate. Investors are particularly interested in how the company will navigate rising interest rates and potential impacts on loan demand.

Bull Case

If BXMT can demonstrate strong loan origination and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could see a rebound in stock price and investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or provides weak guidance, it could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.34

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

Loan Origination Volume

N/A

This metric reflects the company's ability to generate new business and is crucial for assessing growth potential.

Net Interest Margin

N/A

A higher net interest margin indicates better profitability from loans, which is vital for a mortgage REIT.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

This number will directly impact investor sentiment and expectations for future performance, especially after the last quarter's miss.

How is BXMT managing its loan origination in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the company's strategy for loan origination will provide insights into its growth prospects and ability to navigate market challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating BXMT's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, as the company's focus on improving loan origination could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility which could favor a rebound.

The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity, as the market has historically reacted positively to recovery narratives.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of BXMT's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate revolves around BXMT's ability to rebound from a disappointing earnings report and effectively manage its operations in a challenging economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.34 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.21 would reinforce bearish sentiment and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing concerns about future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.5% based on historical patterns, further impacting investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on loan origination volume and strategies.
2Any commentary on interest rate impacts on profitability.
3Insights into the company's balance sheet and financial health.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and future guidance.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding the recent earnings miss.

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Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

$0.34

Loan Origination Volume

This metric reflects the company's ability to generate new business and is crucial for assessing growth potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving loan origination processes.
Commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Plans to enhance investor communications regarding market conditions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If BXMT can demonstrate strong loan origination and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could see a rebound in stock price and investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or provides weak guidance, it could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.34

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

Loan Origination Volume

N/A

This metric reflects the company's ability to generate new business and is crucial for assessing growth potential.

Net Interest Margin

N/A

A higher net interest margin indicates better profitability from loans, which is vital for a mortgage REIT.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

This number will directly impact investor sentiment and expectations for future performance, especially after the last quarter's miss.

How is BXMT managing its loan origination in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the company's strategy for loan origination will provide insights into its growth prospects and ability to navigate market challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating BXMT's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, as the company's focus on improving loan origination could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility which could favor a rebound.

The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity, as the market has historically reacted positively to recovery narratives.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of BXMT's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate revolves around BXMT's ability to rebound from a disappointing earnings report and effectively manage its operations in a challenging economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.34 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.21 would reinforce bearish sentiment and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing concerns about future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.5% based on historical patterns, further impacting investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on loan origination volume and strategies.
2Any commentary on interest rate impacts on profitability.
3Insights into the company's balance sheet and financial health.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and future guidance.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding the recent earnings miss.