Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.2%
EPS beat rate
38%
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supplying various petroleum products, which are essential for transportation and industry.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$1.09, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.73% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-81.98%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.48%
Overall, expectations for Calumet's upcoming earnings are cautious given the recent history of significant EPS misses. Investors will be looking for any signs of recovery or improvement.
Bull case
If Calumet can show a turnaround in earnings and revenue, it may signal a recovery in operations and market conditions, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Continued losses or further misses could reinforce concerns about the company's financial stability and operational challenges, leading to a negative stock response.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS figure be for Q3-2026?
Given the company's recent history of EPS misses, this number will be critical in assessing financial stability and investor confidence.
Q2
How has revenue changed compared to previous quarters?
Revenue trends will indicate whether the company is recovering from its recent struggles and how it is positioned in the market.
—
Est. EPS
$1.57
Est. Rev
$23.0B
Impl. Move
±5.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street is overly pessimistic about Calumet's potential for recovery, failing to account for potential operational improvements and market conditions that could favor a rebound.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing an 8.2% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not materialize if results are better than feared.
The historical average move of 5.87% suggests the current implied move may be excessive.
Key risk
If EPS comes in better than -$1.00, it could shift sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment of the company's outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching for signs of recovery after a series of disappointing earnings, making these thresholds critical.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of less than -$1.00 would indicate a significant improvement in financial performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -$1.50 would confirm ongoing challenges and potential operational issues.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.20%
Historical Avg
±5.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.2% while CLMT has averaged ±5.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
34.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy
Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.5%, with a raw directional average of +0.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$0.00
24,555 sh
1 insider
Net
—
Balanced
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
—
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
52.02%
of float
Insider
20.15%
of float
Holders
272
institutions
Top Holders· as of Sep 2026
Two Seas Capital Lp
5,280,659 sh · $297.2M
6.01%
-20.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.87%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to a muted response.
Miss
If Calumet misses again, history suggests a decline of approximately 0.62%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $0.00
24,555 sh
$0.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
5,234,106 sh · $294.6M
5.95%
5.1%
Wasserstein Management, L.P
3,964,893 sh · $223.2M
4.51%
-13.3%
State Street Corporation
3,471,065 sh · $195.4M
3.95%
12.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,453,911 sh · $194.4M
3.93%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.