Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Oct 30, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±4.5%
EPS beat rate
88%
ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. is a regional bank that provides various financial services, including personal and commercial banking. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in supporting local economies and businesses through lending and deposit services.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, ChoiceOne reported an EPS of $0.83, which was slightly below the expected $0.88, resulting in a stock decline of 2.82% the following day. The company continues to show resilience in a challenging economic environment.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.23%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.43%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially given the company's historical performance of beating EPS estimates. However, there are concerns about potential loan growth and net interest margin pressures.
Bull case
If ChoiceOne can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the bank reports weaker-than-expected loan growth or a declining net interest margin, it could raise concerns about future profitability and lead to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current loan growth rate compared to last quarter?
Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any slowdown could signal underlying issues in the bank's lending capacity.
Q2
How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?
Net interest margin affects profitability directly, and any decline could raise concerns about the bank's ability to manage its interest income effectively.
—
Est. EPS
$6.73
Est. Rev
$4.6B
Impl. Move
±8.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the impact of recent economic conditions on loan growth, leading to overly optimistic expectations for this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter showed a decline in EPS, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Historical patterns suggest that the bank has struggled to maintain loan growth during economic downturns.
Key risk
If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could challenge the current optimistic outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on the bank's ability to manage loan growth and net interest margins amid economic challenges.
Bull confirmed if
Demonstrating loan growth of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A net interest margin decline below 3.5% would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.49%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 4.5% in either direction, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.5% while COFS has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
14.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
48.51%
of float
Insider
6.58%
of float
Holders
175
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
1,086,956 sh · $36.0M
15.00%
12.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ChoiceOne beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.04%, reinforcing positive sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors digest the commentary.
Miss
Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.82%, which could raise concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Northern Trust Corporation
676,173 sh · $22.4M
9.33%
-2.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
624,274 sh · $20.7M
8.61%
-1.4%
State Street Corporation
447,442 sh · $14.8M
6.17%
39.3%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
380,890 sh · $12.6M
5.26%
8.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.