Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.48
Est. revenue
$776M
Implied move
±5.7%
EPS beat rate
13%
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a leading player in the financial sector, focusing on asset management and providing capital to businesses. With a market cap of $13 billion, it plays a crucial role in financing and supporting companies across various industries, which can be influenced by economic trends and interest rates.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, matching analyst expectations. The stock experienced a slight decline of 1.73% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-2.21%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.51%
Analysts are expecting Ares Capital to report an EPS of $0.48 and revenue of $776 million for Q3 2026, indicating stable performance.
Bull case
If Ares Capital exceeds EPS expectations, it may signal strong underlying business performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS or revenue targets, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a decline in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.48Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
776MTotal revenue gives insight into the company's scale and operational success, reflecting demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Ares Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and management effectiveness, which would likely boost investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance or commentary will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Investors will be keen to understand the company's outlook, especially in the context of economic conditions and interest rates.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Ares Capital's ability to navigate economic challenges, especially if they can demonstrate resilience in their revenue streams.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent earnings history shows mixed reactions, indicating that investor sentiment may be more cautious than the consensus suggests.
Key risk
If Ares Capital's revenue growth shows unexpected strength, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus is on whether Ares Capital can maintain its earnings amid economic challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.49 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.47 would raise concerns about profitability and growth prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.68%
Historical Avg
±1.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.7% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
13.4%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
35.97%
of float
Insider
0.56%
of float
Holders
903
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Morgan Stanley
17,022,990 sh · $314.1M
2.37%
4.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.26% on the first day, confirming positive sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 0.76%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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13,778,805 sh · $254.2M
1.92%
-3.8%
Van Eck Associates Corporation
13,306,095 sh · $245.5M
1.85%
22.2%
STRS Ohio
10,657,085 sh · $196.6M
1.48%
1.5%
Bank of America Corporation
8,935,191 sh · $164.9M
1.24%
-2.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Jul 24, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.