Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$149.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $150 billion, the company is significant in the ongoing discussions about energy supply and sustainability, especially as global demand for oil and gas continues to evolve.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding how well the company is expanding its operations and capturing market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, surpassing estimates by 3.07%. However, the stock fell 1.93% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are watching closely for signs of continued profitability and production efficiency. The market is uncertain about how external factors like oil prices may influence results this quarter.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips can demonstrate strong production growth and maintain or improve its EPS, it could lead to a positive market reaction and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected production or profitability, it may reinforce concerns about the sustainability of its current business model.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the production levels be for Q2-2026?

Production levels are critical for revenue generation, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does ConocoPhillips plan to navigate fluctuating oil prices?

With oil prices being volatile, the company's strategy to manage costs and maximize profits will be closely scrutinized.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for ConocoPhillips to capitalize on rising global energy demand, especially if production levels exceed expectations.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant news.

ConocoPhillips has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 1 million barrels per day, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Production growth of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels dropping below 1 million barrels per day would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%, reinforcing positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management expresses caution, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on profitability.
3Details on cost management strategies in response to market fluctuations.
4Insights into new projects or investments that could drive future growth.
5Any commentary on environmental initiatives and their impact on operations.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding how well the company is expanding its operations and capturing market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, surpassing estimates by 3.07%. However, the stock fell 1.93% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips can demonstrate strong production growth and maintain or improve its EPS, it could lead to a positive market reaction and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected production or profitability, it may reinforce concerns about the sustainability of its current business model.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the production levels be for Q2-2026?

Production levels are critical for revenue generation, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does ConocoPhillips plan to navigate fluctuating oil prices?

With oil prices being volatile, the company's strategy to manage costs and maximize profits will be closely scrutinized.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for ConocoPhillips to capitalize on rising global energy demand, especially if production levels exceed expectations.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant news.

ConocoPhillips has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 1 million barrels per day, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Production growth of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels dropping below 1 million barrels per day would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%, reinforcing positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management expresses caution, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on profitability.
3Details on cost management strategies in response to market fluctuations.
4Insights into new projects or investments that could drive future growth.
5Any commentary on environmental initiatives and their impact on operations.