Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$146.9B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $147 billion, the company is significant in the global energy landscape, especially as demand for oil and gas continues amid ongoing discussions about renewable energy sources.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ConocoPhillips managed costs and revenue this quarter.

Expected to be around $1.75

Production Levels

Production levels indicate the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

Expected to be stable or slightly increased

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell 1.93% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining production efficiency.
Commitment to cost management and operational excellence.
Plans to navigate market volatility effectively.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ConocoPhillips' upcoming earnings, expecting stable production and a solid EPS. However, concerns about oil price volatility and operational challenges remain.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips reports higher-than-expected production and maintains strong pricing, it could lead to significant upside in stock performance.

Bear Case

If the company misses EPS expectations or reports lower production levels due to market conditions, it could negatively impact investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $1.75

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ConocoPhillips managed costs and revenue this quarter.

Production Levels

Expected to be stable or slightly increased

Production levels indicate the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

Oil Prices

Average prices expected to be around $70 per barrel

Fluctuations in oil prices directly impact revenue and profitability for oil companies like ConocoPhillips.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could sway investor sentiment.

How have production levels changed compared to last quarter?

Production levels are vital for assessing operational efficiency and market competitiveness, impacting future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising oil prices on ConocoPhillips' profitability this quarter, as recent trends suggest a stronger pricing environment than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 9.46% move, indicating higher expected volatility than historical averages.

The company has a history of beating EPS expectations, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If production levels come in below expectations, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ConocoPhillips can sustain its profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and production challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market resilience.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.70 would indicate potential operational challenges and market pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, suggesting investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.62%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·2 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$32,004.00–$130,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Guidance on future oil price expectations.
3Details on cost management strategies.
4Insights into market demand trends.
5Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ConocoPhillips managed costs and revenue this quarter.

Expected to be around $1.75

Production Levels

Production levels indicate the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

Expected to be stable or slightly increased

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell 1.93% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining production efficiency.
Commitment to cost management and operational excellence.
Plans to navigate market volatility effectively.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips reports higher-than-expected production and maintains strong pricing, it could lead to significant upside in stock performance.

Bear Case

If the company misses EPS expectations or reports lower production levels due to market conditions, it could negatively impact investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $1.75

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ConocoPhillips managed costs and revenue this quarter.

Production Levels

Expected to be stable or slightly increased

Production levels indicate the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

Oil Prices

Average prices expected to be around $70 per barrel

Fluctuations in oil prices directly impact revenue and profitability for oil companies like ConocoPhillips.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could sway investor sentiment.

How have production levels changed compared to last quarter?

Production levels are vital for assessing operational efficiency and market competitiveness, impacting future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising oil prices on ConocoPhillips' profitability this quarter, as recent trends suggest a stronger pricing environment than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 9.46% move, indicating higher expected volatility than historical averages.

The company has a history of beating EPS expectations, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If production levels come in below expectations, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ConocoPhillips can sustain its profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and production challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market resilience.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.70 would indicate potential operational challenges and market pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, suggesting investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.62%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·2 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$32,004.00–$130,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Guidance on future oil price expectations.
3Details on cost management strategies.
4Insights into market demand trends.
5Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.