Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$144.8B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, specifically in oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $138 billion, the company is significant in the global energy landscape, especially as energy demand fluctuates and the industry faces pressures from renewable energy trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Production Levels

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making it crucial to assess how much oil and gas ConocoPhillips is producing.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, surpassing estimates by 3.07%. However, the stock declined by nearly 2% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the upcoming earnings report, with expectations for solid performance based on previous EPS beats. However, the market is also wary of potential production challenges and cost pressures.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips reports strong production numbers and maintains or reduces operating costs, the stock could see a positive reaction, reflecting confidence in the company's operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production levels fall short or costs rise significantly, the stock may react negatively, reflecting concerns about profitability in a volatile market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the production levels for Q2 2026?

Production levels will be critical to understanding revenue potential and overall operational health, especially in the current market environment.

How have operating costs changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in operating costs can significantly impact profitability, and investors will be looking for insights into cost management strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising global oil demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected production numbers for ConocoPhillips this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing indicates a larger move than historical averages, suggesting potential for surprises.

Recent trends in oil prices have shown resilience, which could benefit production levels.

ConocoPhillips has a history of outperforming in favorable market conditions, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 1.5 million barrels per day, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on balancing production efficiency with cost management amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day would strongly support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating costs rising above $40 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect notable volatility following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.62%, confirming confidence in its operational strategy.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh the implications of production and cost management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 1.83%, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production targets and actual production levels for Q2.
2Details on operating costs and any cost-saving measures implemented.
3Insights into market demand and pricing trends for oil and gas.
4Management's outlook on future quarters and any anticipated challenges.
5Comments on the impact of geopolitical events on operations and supply chains.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Production Levels

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making it crucial to assess how much oil and gas ConocoPhillips is producing.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, surpassing estimates by 3.07%. However, the stock declined by nearly 2% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips reports strong production numbers and maintains or reduces operating costs, the stock could see a positive reaction, reflecting confidence in the company's operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production levels fall short or costs rise significantly, the stock may react negatively, reflecting concerns about profitability in a volatile market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the production levels for Q2 2026?

Production levels will be critical to understanding revenue potential and overall operational health, especially in the current market environment.

How have operating costs changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in operating costs can significantly impact profitability, and investors will be looking for insights into cost management strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising global oil demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected production numbers for ConocoPhillips this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing indicates a larger move than historical averages, suggesting potential for surprises.

Recent trends in oil prices have shown resilience, which could benefit production levels.

ConocoPhillips has a history of outperforming in favorable market conditions, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 1.5 million barrels per day, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on balancing production efficiency with cost management amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day would strongly support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating costs rising above $40 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect notable volatility following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.62%, confirming confidence in its operational strategy.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh the implications of production and cost management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 1.83%, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production targets and actual production levels for Q2.
2Details on operating costs and any cost-saving measures implemented.
3Insights into market demand and pricing trends for oil and gas.
4Management's outlook on future quarters and any anticipated challenges.
5Comments on the impact of geopolitical events on operations and supply chains.