Equity Profile

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail$410.9B

Sep24Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is a leading retailer known for its membership-based warehouse clubs that offer a wide range of products at competitive prices. Operating in the consumer staples sector, Costco benefits from strong consumer spending trends, particularly in essential goods, which can be resilient during economic fluctuations.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well Costco managed costs and sales during the quarter.

N/A

Membership Growth

Membership growth is crucial for Costco's revenue model, as it drives sales and customer loyalty.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Costco reported an EPS of $4.93, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock saw a modest decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining low prices to attract more members.
Commitment to expanding product offerings in key categories.
Plans to enhance the online shopping experience for members.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings, hoping for continued growth in membership and sales despite economic pressures.

Bull Case

If Costco reports strong membership growth and same-store sales, it could signal robust consumer demand and pricing power, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if membership growth stalls or same-store sales decline, it may raise concerns about consumer spending and competitive pressures, resulting in a negative market response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the membership growth rate this quarter?

Membership growth is vital for Costco's revenue model, and any slowdown could indicate weakening consumer confidence.

How did same-store sales perform compared to last year?

Same-store sales growth reflects ongoing consumer demand and pricing power, which are crucial for Costco's profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Costco's ability to attract new members despite economic pressures, as its value proposition remains strong.

Supporting Evidence

Costco's historical performance shows resilience during economic downturns, often leading to increased membership.

The options market indicates a higher expected move, suggesting traders are anticipating significant news.

Recent trends in consumer staples suggest a shift towards value-oriented retailers like Costco.

Key Risk

If membership growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on consumer spending trends and Costco's ability to attract and retain members.

Bull Confirmed If

Membership growth of 5% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand and support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in same-store sales growth below 2% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.27%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.3% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15% on the first day, confirming strong consumer demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the news.

Miss

If Costco misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.02%, indicating concerns about consumer spending.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on membership growth and retention rates.
2Insights on same-store sales performance and pricing strategies.
3Updates on online sales growth and e-commerce initiatives.
4Any commentary on supply chain challenges and cost management.
5Management's outlook on consumer spending trends for the upcoming quarter.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well Costco managed costs and sales during the quarter.

N/A

Membership Growth

Membership growth is crucial for Costco's revenue model, as it drives sales and customer loyalty.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Costco reported an EPS of $4.93, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock saw a modest decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining low prices to attract more members.
Commitment to expanding product offerings in key categories.
Plans to enhance the online shopping experience for members.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings, hoping for continued growth in membership and sales despite economic pressures.

Bull Case

If Costco reports strong membership growth and same-store sales, it could signal robust consumer demand and pricing power, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if membership growth stalls or same-store sales decline, it may raise concerns about consumer spending and competitive pressures, resulting in a negative market response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the membership growth rate this quarter?

Membership growth is vital for Costco's revenue model, and any slowdown could indicate weakening consumer confidence.

How did same-store sales perform compared to last year?

Same-store sales growth reflects ongoing consumer demand and pricing power, which are crucial for Costco's profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Costco's ability to attract new members despite economic pressures, as its value proposition remains strong.

Supporting Evidence

Costco's historical performance shows resilience during economic downturns, often leading to increased membership.

The options market indicates a higher expected move, suggesting traders are anticipating significant news.

Recent trends in consumer staples suggest a shift towards value-oriented retailers like Costco.

Key Risk

If membership growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on consumer spending trends and Costco's ability to attract and retain members.

Bull Confirmed If

Membership growth of 5% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand and support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in same-store sales growth below 2% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.27%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.3% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15% on the first day, confirming strong consumer demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the news.

Miss

If Costco misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.02%, indicating concerns about consumer spending.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on membership growth and retention rates.
2Insights on same-store sales performance and pricing strategies.
3Updates on online sales growth and e-commerce initiatives.
4Any commentary on supply chain challenges and cost management.
5Management's outlook on consumer spending trends for the upcoming quarter.