Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Sep 24, 2026
EPS actual
$6.75
EPS est.
$6.48
EPS surprise
+4.15%
1-day move
-0.91%
Costco reported a better-than-expected EPS for the quarter, indicating strong profitability. However, the stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.91%. This decline may reflect investor concerns or broader market trends, as no revenue figures or forward guidance were provided.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $6.75 | N/A | +4.15% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates a chain of membership-only warehouse clubs, offering a wide range of products at competitive prices. As a leader in the consumer staples sector, Costco benefits from strong consumer spending trends and a loyal customer base, making it a key player in the retail industry.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, Costco reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock declined by 0.85% the following day, indicating some investor caution despite the positive earnings surprise.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.79%
Overall, Wall Street expects Costco to deliver solid results, driven by strong membership growth and consistent consumer demand. However, there are concerns about rising costs and competition in the retail space.
Bull case
If Costco can report strong same-store sales growth and maintain its gross margin, it could signal robust consumer loyalty and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if rising costs significantly impact margins or if same-store sales growth falls short of expectations, it could raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.
Key metrics to watch
Membership Growth
5% YoY growthMembership renewals and new sign-ups are crucial for Costco's revenue model, as they drive sales in its warehouses.
Same-Store Sales Growth
6% increaseThis metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, reflecting consumer demand and operational efficiency.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected same-store sales growth for Q4-2026?
This figure will be critical in assessing consumer demand and Costco's ability to maintain its competitive edge in the retail market.
Q2
How is Costco managing rising costs and what impact will it have on gross margins?
Understanding the company's strategy to handle inflation and cost pressures will be essential for evaluating its profitability moving forward.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Costco's ability to drive membership growth despite economic pressures, as its loyal customer base is likely to remain resilient.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than historical averages, indicating investor uncertainty.
Costco's strong track record of beating EPS estimates (88% beat rate) suggests it may outperform expectations again.
Recent consumer spending trends indicate continued strength in essential retail sectors.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth exceeds 7%, it could significantly shift market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around Costco's ability to sustain growth amidst rising costs and competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
Same-store sales growth of 7% or better, with gross margins holding above 13.5%.
Bear confirmed if
Same-store sales growth below 5%, coupled with a gross margin decline.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.27%
Historical Avg
±1.06%
The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.27% in either direction following the earnings report, suggesting some uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing a larger move than the historical average, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
24.4%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.7M
3,000.638 sh
2 insiders
Net
$2.7M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$2.0M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15% on average the following day, confirming strong consumer demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors weigh future growth prospects.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.02%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Gross Margin
13.5%Maintaining or improving gross margin is essential for profitability, especially in a competitive retail environment.
$733,328.36
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $915.93
2,200 sh
$2.0M
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $915.93
800.638 sh
$733,328.36
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.