Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±17.6%
EPS beat rate
80%
Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software. The company plays a significant role in the growing demand for digital solutions, particularly as businesses increasingly rely on software to enhance operations and customer engagement.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Circle reported an EPS of $0.18, surpassing expectations by 11.80%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.05% the following day, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
80%
Avg EPS surprise
+100.15%
Avg 1-day reaction
+8.10%
Investors are anticipating another strong performance from Circle, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific revenue guidance may lead to uncertainty.
Bull case
If Circle continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust operational efficiency and market demand, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of slowing growth or failure to meet expectations could lead to a significant pullback, especially given the stock's recent performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026, and will it continue the trend of beating estimates?
Given the company's strong track record of EPS surprises, this will be a key indicator of ongoing profitability and operational success.
Q2
What insights can be shared about revenue growth in the current market environment?
Understanding revenue dynamics will help gauge the company's ability to capitalize on market trends and customer demand.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Circle's ability to maintain its growth trajectory despite the lack of specific revenue guidance, as historical performance suggests resilience.
Supporting evidence
Circle has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent performance trends in the tech sector may not fully reflect Circle's unique market position.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $0.15, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the company's growth narrative or raise concerns about its future prospects.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.15 would suggest a potential slowdown in growth and confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.47%
Historical Avg
±13.0%
The options market is pricing in a substantial move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±17.6% while CRCL has averaged ±13.0% over the last 5 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
89.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of -2.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$5.8M
69,526 sh
4 insiders
Net
$5.8M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 23 open-market trades
$5.2M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
68.08%
of float
Insider
2.26%
of float
Holders
787
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
IDG China Capital Fund III Associates L.P.
8,902,014 sh · $719.6M
3.79%
-1.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Circle beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 9.81%, confirming strong operational momentum.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh the implications of the results without clear guidance.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 12.21%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$363,535.64
Net selling
$156,977.40
Net selling
$102,421.32
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $83.60
33,145 sh
$2.8M
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $82.75
13,035 sh
$1.1M
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $84.54
8,666 sh
$732,623.64
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $85.78
4,238 sh
$363,535.64
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $85.78
1,830 sh
$156,977.40
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
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Morgan Stanley
8,315,961 sh · $672.3M
3.54%
66.9%
Idg-accel China Capital II Associates L.P.
6,974,093 sh · $563.8M
2.97%
-0.3%
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5,878,678 sh · $475.2M
2.50%
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.