Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 20, 2026
EPS actual
$5.10
EPS est.
$4.79
EPS surprise
+6.56%
1-day move
+6.94%
Deere's strong EPS performance exceeded expectations, contributing to a 6.94% increase in stock price. The company's revenue growth of 5% year-over-year indicates solid demand, particularly in the Small Ag & Turf segment. Management's outlook suggests they believe the agricultural equipment market is at a low point, with expectations for recovery in the coming year.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.10 | $4.67 | +6.56% |
| Revenue | $12.608B | $10.7B | N/A |
| Net Income | $1.379B | N/A | N/A |
| Equipment Operations Margin | 14.4% | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed optimism about future recovery in the agricultural equipment market. They highlighted strong performance in Construction & Forestry and Small Ag & Turf segments.
Management anticipates 2026 as the bottom of the ag equipment cycle, with a recovery expected in 2027.
Deere & Company (DE) is a leading manufacturer of agricultural and farm machinery, playing a crucial role in the industrial sector. As global demand for food production grows, Deere's innovations and equipment are vital for farmers and agricultural businesses worldwide.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Deere reported an EPS of $6.55, significantly exceeding expectations by 12.74%. However, the stock fell 5.19% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the strong earnings.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.32%
Analysts are generally optimistic about Deere's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance driven by strong agricultural demand. However, there are concerns about potential supply chain issues impacting revenue.
Bull case
If Deere exceeds EPS expectations and demonstrates robust revenue growth, it could signal strong market demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue due to ongoing supply chain challenges, it could lead to a significant sell-off in the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$4.67Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.
Revenue
$10.7BRevenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Deere's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $4.67?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in Deere's profitability and operational strength, potentially driving the stock higher.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations in light of supply chain challenges?
Understanding how supply chain issues are impacting revenue will be crucial for assessing future growth potential and market demand.
Est. EPS
$3.81
Est. Rev
$1.3B
Impl. Move
±41.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Deere's ability to leverage its strong market position and innovative product offerings, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
Deere's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, suggesting the potential for another beat.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.
Historical trends show that Deere has a solid track record of beating EPS estimates.
Key risk
If supply chain issues are resolved faster than anticipated, it could lead to a significant upside surprise.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing Deere's ability to navigate supply chain issues while maintaining profitability and revenue growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $5.02 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $11.3B, would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $4.33 and revenue under $10.3B would indicate significant challenges in meeting market expectations.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.86%
Historical Avg
±6.3%
The options market is pricing in a larger-than-average move, suggesting that investors anticipate significant volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.9% while DE has averaged ±6.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
33.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 7 of 24 (29%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 17 of 24 (71%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +2.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Deere beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.72%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution about future growth, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 6.22%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over operational challenges.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
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Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
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Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.