Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±12.1%
EPS beat rate
100%
DraftKings Inc. is a leading online sports betting and gaming company in the consumer discretionary sector. As more states in the U.S. legalize sports betting, DraftKings stands to benefit from increased consumer spending in this growing market.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, DraftKings reported an EPS of $0.09, beating expectations by 20%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.88% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+231.26%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.28%
Overall, expectations are high for DraftKings as they have consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past. Investors are eager to see if this trend continues.
Bull case
If DraftKings shows strong user growth and revenue increases significantly, it could signal robust demand for online sports betting.
Bear case
Conversely, if user growth stagnates or revenue growth falls short, it could raise concerns about market saturation and competition.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the growth in active users compared to last quarter?
User growth is critical for DraftKings, and any slowdown could indicate challenges in attracting new customers.
Q2
How has ARPU changed in the last quarter?
Changes in ARPU will help investors understand whether DraftKings is effectively monetizing its user base.
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for user growth as more states legalize sports betting, which could lead to higher revenue than expected.
Supporting evidence
DraftKings has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
User engagement metrics have shown resilience, which may not be fully reflected in current forecasts.
Key risk
If active user growth exceeds 10%, it could significantly alter market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reveal whether DraftKings can maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive market.
Bull confirmed if
Active user growth of over 10% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in active users or ARPU below $50 would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.13%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.1% while DKNG has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
52.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
82.95%
of float
Insider
8.62%
of float
Holders
870
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
CIBC Bancorp USA Inc.
37,316,338 sh · $714.6M
7.52%
205.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If DraftKings beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.28%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response as investors reassess growth prospects.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline, with an average move of around 1.28% down.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
AQR Capital Management, LLC
29,668,081 sh · $568.1M
5.98%
29.8%
Jupiter Topco LLC
25,274,243 sh · $484.0M
5.09%
100.0%
Capital World Investors
24,798,304 sh · $474.9M
5.00%
0.3%
Blackrock Inc.
22,955,769 sh · $439.6M
4.62%
-13.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.