Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±11.2%
EPS beat rate
88%
DNOW Inc. operates in the industrial sector, focusing on trading and distributing products and services to the energy and industrial sectors. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supply chain management, especially as global demand for energy and industrial products fluctuates.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, DNOW reported an EPS of $0.12, exceeding expectations by 44.58%. The stock rose by 8.23% the following day, reflecting positive investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+22.34%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.32%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially given the company's recent EPS beat. However, uncertainty remains due to the lack of guidance and analyst estimates.
Bull case
If DNOW continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to a negative reaction in the stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How has revenue changed compared to previous quarters?
Understanding revenue trends will help assess the company's growth trajectory and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating DNOW's ability to leverage recent operational improvements, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS.
Supporting evidence
DNOW has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than the historical average, indicating expectations for significant volatility.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $0.15, it could invalidate the cautious outlook and shift sentiment positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain profitability and growth in a fluctuating industrial landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.08 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.02%
Historical Avg
±8.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect notable volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.2% while DNOW has averaged ±8.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
29.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 10 of 30 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 20 of 30 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.8% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
109.19%
of float
Insider
1.70%
of float
Holders
409
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
28,908,385 sh · $444.0M
15.99%
-2.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If DNOW beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.03% the next day, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 3.33%, reflecting negative investor sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Wellington Management Group, LLP
19,513,068 sh · $299.7M
10.79%
15.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
10,397,158 sh · $159.7M
5.75%
-0.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
8,202,459 sh · $126.0M
4.54%
-1.6%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
7,956,916 sh · $122.2M
4.40%
-23.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.