Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Aug 10, 2026
EPS actual
$3.39
EPS est.
$3.23
EPS surprise
+4.92%
1-day move
+2.76%
Ferguson Enterprises reported a strong EPS performance, exceeding expectations by nearly 5%. The positive surprise contributed to a 2.76% increase in the stock price, indicating investor confidence despite the lack of revenue data and guidance updates.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.39 | N/A | +4.92% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products. Operating in the industrial sector, the company plays a crucial role in the construction and renovation markets, which are influenced by trends in housing and infrastructure spending.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Ferguson reported an EPS of $2.28, beating expectations by 6.69%. However, the stock fell 3.06% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
71%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.03%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Ferguson's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent EPS beats. However, concerns about potential revenue growth persist.
Bull case
If Ferguson continues to outperform expectations, particularly in EPS, it could signal strong operational efficiency and increased market share.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of declining revenue or increased costs could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the stock's recent volatility.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $2.28?
A strong EPS could reinforce investor confidence, while a decline may raise concerns about profitability.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?
Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's market position and ability to capitalize on industry demand.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±6.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Ferguson's ability to maintain strong EPS growth despite potential revenue challenges, as recent operational efficiencies could offset market pressures.
Supporting evidence
Ferguson's recent EPS beats suggest strong management performance that may not be fully reflected in current expectations.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $2.20, it could signal deeper issues than currently anticipated.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on Ferguson's ability to maintain profitability while navigating market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.20 would confirm the bear case, indicating potential issues with profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.0%
Historical Avg
±7.4%
The options market is pricing in a roughly 4% move in either direction, suggesting uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.0% while FERG has averaged ±7.4% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
27.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Industrials
Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 6.77%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 7.83%, as investors reassess the company's growth prospects.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.