Equity Profile

FERG

Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$44.5B

Jun8Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products in the industrial sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ferguson managed costs and sales during the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share, which is vital in a competitive environment.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FERG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products in the industrial sector. With a market cap of $45 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the supply chain for construction and renovation projects, making it sensitive to trends in housing and infrastructure spending.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 6Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ferguson reported an EPS of $2.28, beating estimates by 6.69%. However, the stock fell 3.06% the next day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Ferguson's upcoming earnings report, especially given the company's recent history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Ferguson continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about slowing demand in the construction sector.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ferguson's revenue growth meet or exceed expectations given recent market trends?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities and could significantly impact investor sentiment.

What specific factors contributed to the EPS beat last quarter, and can they be sustained?

Understanding the drivers behind the EPS surprise will help investors gauge whether this performance is repeatable or a one-time occurrence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Ferguson's ability to leverage operational efficiencies, which could lead to stronger-than-expected EPS growth despite market challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Ferguson's recent EPS surprises indicate a pattern of operational strength that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Options pricing suggests lower volatility expectations, which may indicate a lack of confidence in bearish scenarios.

Key Risk

If revenue growth comes in below 5%, it could undermine the bullish narrative surrounding operational efficiency.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Ferguson can maintain its growth trajectory amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate of at least 10% year-over-year would confirm the bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

If revenue growth falls below 5%, it would signal potential issues in demand and operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.0%

Historical Avg

±8.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4%, which is lower than the historical average of around 8%. This suggests that traders are expecting less volatility than usual.

Options are pricing ±4.0% while FERG has averaged ±8.1% over the last 6 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 4.00Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.77%, confirming a positive trend in demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-GARichard W. AllenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth and market demand trends.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into competitive positioning in the plumbing and heating market.
4Management's outlook on future market conditions and potential challenges.
5Responses to any analyst questions regarding supply chain issues.

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Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products in the industrial sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ferguson managed costs and sales during the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share, which is vital in a competitive environment.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FERG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 6Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ferguson reported an EPS of $2.28, beating estimates by 6.69%. However, the stock fell 3.06% the next day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ferguson continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about slowing demand in the construction sector.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ferguson's revenue growth meet or exceed expectations given recent market trends?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities and could significantly impact investor sentiment.

What specific factors contributed to the EPS beat last quarter, and can they be sustained?

Understanding the drivers behind the EPS surprise will help investors gauge whether this performance is repeatable or a one-time occurrence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Ferguson's ability to leverage operational efficiencies, which could lead to stronger-than-expected EPS growth despite market challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Ferguson's recent EPS surprises indicate a pattern of operational strength that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Options pricing suggests lower volatility expectations, which may indicate a lack of confidence in bearish scenarios.

Key Risk

If revenue growth comes in below 5%, it could undermine the bullish narrative surrounding operational efficiency.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Ferguson can maintain its growth trajectory amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate of at least 10% year-over-year would confirm the bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

If revenue growth falls below 5%, it would signal potential issues in demand and operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.0%

Historical Avg

±8.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4%, which is lower than the historical average of around 8%. This suggests that traders are expecting less volatility than usual.

Options are pricing ±4.0% while FERG has averaged ±8.1% over the last 6 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 4.00Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.77%, confirming a positive trend in demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-GARichard W. AllenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth and market demand trends.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into competitive positioning in the plumbing and heating market.
4Management's outlook on future market conditions and potential challenges.
5Responses to any analyst questions regarding supply chain issues.