Equity Profile

FLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$5.9B

Aug12Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on developing small and medium-sized launch vehicles for satellite deployment....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to scale its operations and capture market share in the competitive aerospace sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on developing small and medium-sized launch vehicles for satellite deployment. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a crucial role in the growing space industry, which is increasingly important for communications, Earth observation, and scientific research.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-378.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Firefly Aerospace reported an EPS of -$0.46, which was a positive surprise compared to the estimate of -$0.50. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautious as the company has consistently reported losses, but there is hope for improvement based on recent surprises in EPS.

Bull Case

If Firefly can continue to surprise on EPS and show signs of revenue growth, it may attract more investor interest and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations again or reports wider losses, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and will it continue the trend of positive surprises?

Given the company's history of EPS surprises, this will be a critical factor in determining market sentiment and stock movement.

What are the revenue expectations for upcoming launches?

Revenue growth is vital for the company's sustainability and could significantly impact investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Firefly's potential for operational improvements and revenue growth from upcoming contracts, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong track record of surprising on EPS, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility that may not align with current consensus.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than -$0.40, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in assessing whether Firefly can turn its financial performance around and gain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.40 or better would confirm the bull case by showing continued improvement in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$0.50 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.25%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 12%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while FLY has averaged ±4.0% over the last 4 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.7%

30d HV

122.1%

Calls (1.3M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (783K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$169,607.84

3,766 sh

1 insider

Net

$169,607.84

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

General CounselWheeler David Leigh
$169,607.84

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Firefly beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.03%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.29%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on upcoming launch contracts and their expected revenue impact.
2Any updates on cost management strategies to improve profitability.
3Insights into production timelines and how they align with market demand.
4Management's outlook on competition and market positioning in the aerospace sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on developing small and medium-sized launch vehicles for satellite deployment....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to scale its operations and capture market share in the competitive aerospace sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-378.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautious as the company has consistently reported losses, but there is hope for improvement based on recent surprises in EPS.

Bull Case

If Firefly can continue to surprise on EPS and show signs of revenue growth, it may attract more investor interest and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations again or reports wider losses, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and will it continue the trend of positive surprises?

Given the company's history of EPS surprises, this will be a critical factor in determining market sentiment and stock movement.

What are the revenue expectations for upcoming launches?

Revenue growth is vital for the company's sustainability and could significantly impact investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Firefly's potential for operational improvements and revenue growth from upcoming contracts, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong track record of surprising on EPS, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility that may not align with current consensus.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than -$0.40, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in assessing whether Firefly can turn its financial performance around and gain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.40 or better would confirm the bull case by showing continued improvement in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$0.50 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.25%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 12%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while FLY has averaged ±4.0% over the last 4 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.7%

30d HV

122.1%

Calls (1.3M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (783K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$169,607.84

3,766 sh

1 insider

Net

$169,607.84

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

General CounselWheeler David Leigh
$169,607.84

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Firefly beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.03%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.29%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on upcoming launch contracts and their expected revenue impact.
2Any updates on cost management strategies to improve profitability.
3Insights into production timelines and how they align with market demand.
4Management's outlook on competition and market positioning in the aerospace sector.