Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, May 7, 2026
Est. EPS
$-0.01
Est. revenue
$670M
Implied move
±5.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Formula One Group (FWONK) is a leading organization in the global motorsport industry, primarily known for its Formula One racing series. As part of the Communication Services sector, it plays a significant role in entertainment and sports, attracting millions of fans and substantial media rights revenue.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Formula One missed earnings expectations significantly, reporting an EPS of $0.08 compared to the expected $0.32. This led to a negative market reaction, with the stock dropping 5.12% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+48.38%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.73%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Formula One's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a slight improvement in revenue and a potential return to profitability.
Bull case
If Formula One can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of recovery in EPS, it may signal a strong rebound in fan engagement and sponsorship deals.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports another loss or lower-than-expected revenue, it could raise concerns about its long-term growth prospects and market position.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$-0.01EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$670MRevenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales, which is crucial for assessing growth potential.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-0.01?
A positive EPS surprise could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence.
Q2
How does the revenue of $670M compare to previous quarters?
Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's recovery and future performance.
Est. EPS
$3.70
Est. Rev
$3.9B
Impl. Move
±4.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for recovery in fan engagement and sponsorship revenue, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends in sports viewership suggest a resurgence in interest in live events, which could benefit Formula One.
The company's historical ability to bounce back from poor quarters indicates potential for a positive surprise.
Key risk
If EPS comes in significantly better than the consensus estimate, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is crucial as it will determine if Formula One can regain momentum after recent disappointing results.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving revenue above $726M would confirm strong demand and market recovery.
Bear confirmed if
Revenue falling below $570M would raise serious concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
30d HV
27.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss setup in Communication Services
Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Communication Services in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.59%
of float
Insider
1.40%
of float
Holders
870
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
13,900,445 sh · $1.3B
6.20%
-0.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Formula One beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.91%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
A miss would likely lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of 2.91% following such outcomes.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
10
9 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$193,010.00–$595,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
10 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
9,751,215 sh · $931.4M
4.35%
-2.8%
Jupiter Topco LLC
9,066,013 sh · $866.0M
4.04%
100.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,901,106 sh · $850.2M
3.97%
-4.8%
Principal Financial Group, Inc.
7,996,585 sh · $763.8M
3.56%
-10.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 25, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Aug 24, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 7, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 3, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 31, 2026 · disclosed Aug 3, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.