Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$0.75
EPS est.
$0.76
EPS surprise
-1.57%
1-day move
-1.02%
Glacier Bancorp's earnings report shows a slight miss on EPS, which contributed to a 1.02% decline in stock price. Investors may be cautious due to the lack of revenue data and management commentary. The absence of guidance may also lead to uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.75 | N/A | -1.57% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. is a regional bank holding company that provides a range of banking services, primarily in the western United States. As a player in the financial sector, it is significant for its role in local economies, offering loans, deposits, and other financial products to individuals and businesses.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Glacier Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.63, falling short of the expected $0.67, resulting in a 5.97% surprise. The stock saw a slight increase of 1.04% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-2.58%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.75%
Overall, investors are cautious heading into the earnings report, especially given the recent earnings misses. The market is looking for signs of stability in loan growth and net interest margins.
Bull case
A strong rebound in EPS and positive loan growth could indicate that Glacier is effectively navigating economic challenges, potentially leading to a stock price increase.
Bear case
If the company continues to miss earnings expectations and shows weak loan growth, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor confidence.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the projected loan growth for the quarter?
Loan growth is crucial for assessing the bank's performance and its ability to generate income, especially in a competitive lending environment.
Q2
How has the net interest margin changed compared to last quarter?
Changes in net interest margin will indicate how well the bank is managing its interest income amidst fluctuating interest rates.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±17.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating Glacier's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, especially if loan growth shows unexpected strength.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 15.3% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.
Glacier has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of the stock's potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around the bank's ability to grow its loan portfolio and maintain healthy margins in a changing economic landscape.
Bull confirmed if
A loan growth rate of over 5% would confirm strong demand and support the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If loan growth is flat or negative, it would signal ongoing challenges and confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.3%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±15.3% while GBCI has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
25.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.18%
of float
Insider
0.70%
of float
Holders
561
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
17,715,517 sh · $757.7M
13.61%
10.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Glacier beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2% on the following day, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a drop in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average decline of about 1.58% following such outcomes.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,861,268 sh · $293.5M
5.27%
2.2%
State Street Corporation
6,552,684 sh · $280.3M
5.03%
5.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,843,261 sh · $249.9M
4.49%
0.6%
Neuberger Berman Group, LLC
4,081,530 sh · $174.6M
3.13%
-8.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 21, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.