Equity Profile

HMC

Honda Motor Co., Ltd.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomobile Manufacturers$40.5B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2023Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) is a major player in the automobile manufacturing sector, known for producing cars, motorcycles, and power equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and helps investors gauge how well Honda is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates how well Honda is selling its vehicles and products, which is essential for assessing overall business health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HMC Q4-2023 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) is a major player in the automobile manufacturing sector, known for producing cars, motorcycles, and power equipment. As a key company in the consumer discretionary sector, Honda's performance can be influenced by consumer spending trends and shifts in automotive technology, including electric vehicles.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+61.25%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.70%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2023, Honda reported an EPS of $1.10, exceeding estimates by 15.7%, which led to a positive stock reaction. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Honda's upcoming earnings are mixed, with some investors hopeful for continued EPS growth while others are cautious due to the lack of revenue guidance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on Honda's ability to maintain or increase its EPS, potentially driven by strong sales in electric vehicles and cost management.

Bear Case

On the downside, if Honda fails to meet EPS expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will Honda's EPS be for Q4 2023?

Given the strong EPS surprise in the previous quarter, investors will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

How is Honda performing in the electric vehicle market?

As the automotive industry shifts, insights into Honda's electric vehicle sales will be critical for assessing its competitive position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Honda's potential in the electric vehicle market, which could drive higher-than-expected EPS growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Honda's recent investments in electric vehicle technology may not be fully reflected in current EPS estimates.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect more volatility than what historical performance suggests.

Key Risk

If electric vehicle sales exceed expectations, it could significantly boost overall profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Honda's ability to sustain profitability amid changing consumer preferences and competition in the electric vehicle space.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.90 would support the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.11%

Historical Avg

±3.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.1% while HMC has averaged ±3.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (30K)P/C Ratio: 0.80Puts (6K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders trimming

Institutional

4.24%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

439

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Fisher Asset Management, LLC
10,532,249 sh · $256.4M
0.70%
-0.4%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Honda beats EPS expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.6%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 5.6%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on electric vehicle sales and market share.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into consumer demand trends for Honda's vehicle lineup.
4Management's outlook on the automotive market for the upcoming fiscal year.
5Any commentary on supply chain challenges and their resolution.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) is a major player in the automobile manufacturing sector, known for producing cars, motorcycles, and power equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and helps investors gauge how well Honda is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates how well Honda is selling its vehicles and products, which is essential for assessing overall business health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HMC Q4-2023 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+61.25%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.70%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Honda's upcoming earnings are mixed, with some investors hopeful for continued EPS growth while others are cautious due to the lack of revenue guidance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on Honda's ability to maintain or increase its EPS, potentially driven by strong sales in electric vehicles and cost management.

Bear Case

On the downside, if Honda fails to meet EPS expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will Honda's EPS be for Q4 2023?

Given the strong EPS surprise in the previous quarter, investors will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

How is Honda performing in the electric vehicle market?

As the automotive industry shifts, insights into Honda's electric vehicle sales will be critical for assessing its competitive position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Honda's potential in the electric vehicle market, which could drive higher-than-expected EPS growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Honda's recent investments in electric vehicle technology may not be fully reflected in current EPS estimates.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect more volatility than what historical performance suggests.

Key Risk

If electric vehicle sales exceed expectations, it could significantly boost overall profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Honda's ability to sustain profitability amid changing consumer preferences and competition in the electric vehicle space.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.90 would support the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.11%

Historical Avg

±3.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.1% while HMC has averaged ±3.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (30K)P/C Ratio: 0.80Puts (6K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders trimming

Institutional

4.24%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

439

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Fisher Asset Management, LLC
10,532,249 sh · $256.4M
0.70%
-0.4%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Honda beats EPS expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.6%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 5.6%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on electric vehicle sales and market share.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into consumer demand trends for Honda's vehicle lineup.
4Management's outlook on the automotive market for the upcoming fiscal year.
5Any commentary on supply chain challenges and their resolution.