Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Est. EPS
$2.17
Est. revenue
$5.0B
Implied move
±8.6%
EPS beat rate
100%
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is a diversified technology and manufacturing company that operates in various sectors, including aerospace, building technologies, and performance materials. As a key player in the industrial sector, Honeywell is focused on innovation and sustainability, making it relevant in today's market where efficiency and eco-friendliness are increasingly valued.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Honeywell reported an impressive EPS of $4.52, significantly exceeding expectations, which led to a 5.70% increase in stock price the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+24.78%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.41%
Overall, analysts expect Honeywell to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, given its strong historical performance. However, the lack of specific guidance raises questions about future growth.
Bull case
If Honeywell can maintain its momentum and deliver strong EPS and revenue growth, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, especially given its history of positive surprises.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could result in a sharp decline in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
Given Honeywell's strong EPS surprises in the past, this number will be critical in determining market sentiment and stock movement.
Q2
How is Honeywell addressing supply chain challenges?
With ongoing global supply chain issues, insights into how Honeywell is managing these challenges will be crucial for understanding future revenue and margin stability.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±13.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Honeywell's ability to manage costs effectively, especially given its historical EPS surprises. This quarter could showcase improved operational efficiencies that are not currently reflected in analyst expectations.
Supporting evidence
Honeywell has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong management performance.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are expecting volatility that could favor a positive surprise.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $3.50, it could lead to a reevaluation of the company's operational efficiency.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on the ability to sustain profitability and manage costs effectively amidst economic uncertainties.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $4.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.50 would validate the bear case, suggesting potential operational issues.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.62%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±8.6% while HON has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
19.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 10 of 30 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 20 of 30 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.8% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.35%
of float
Insider
0.08%
of float
Holders
2,763
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
22,778,297 sh · $4.7B
7.19%
-6.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Honeywell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.41%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 5.28%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
4
1 buy·1 sell
Members
3
House only
Est. Notional
$46,004.00–$165,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
20,693,284 sh · $4.3B
6.53%
0.3%
State Street Corporation
18,738,370 sh · $3.9B
5.91%
18.1%
Newport Trust Company, LLC
12,865,197 sh · $2.7B
4.06%
100.0%
Invesco Ltd.
11,249,305 sh · $2.3B
3.55%
6.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
0 trades
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 29, 2026 · disclosed Jul 16, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jun 29, 2026 · disclosed Jul 30, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.