Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±15.2%
EPS beat rate
100%
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS) is a leading provider of marketing, sales, and customer service software. As part of the Information Technology sector, it plays a crucial role in helping businesses manage customer relationships and improve their online presence, especially as digital transformation continues to accelerate across industries.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, HubSpot reported an impressive earnings surprise with an EPS of $3.26, significantly beating expectations. The stock saw a slight increase the following day, reflecting positive investor sentiment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+1455.34%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.12%
Overall, investors are optimistic about HubSpot's upcoming earnings, especially given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, there are concerns about whether the company can maintain its growth trajectory amidst increasing competition.
Bull case
If HubSpot continues to show strong customer growth and ARPU increases, it could lead to higher revenue projections and further stock appreciation.
Bear case
Conversely, if customer acquisition slows or churn rates increase, it could signal trouble for future growth, leading to a potential decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
Customer Growth Rate
Expected to show a steady increase.This metric indicates how well HubSpot is attracting new customers, which is vital for future revenue growth.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
Expected to increase modestly.ARPU reflects the company's ability to upsell and cross-sell its services, impacting overall revenue.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current customer growth rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?
This will provide insight into HubSpot's ability to attract new clients and sustain revenue growth.
Q2
What is the average revenue per user (ARPU) and how has it changed?
Understanding ARPU trends will help gauge the effectiveness of HubSpot's upselling strategies.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate HubSpot's ability to maintain customer growth due to its innovative product enhancements and strong brand loyalty.
Supporting evidence
Historical data shows a consistent ability to beat EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, reflecting market anticipation of significant news.
The company's recent investments in customer support could lead to improved retention rates.
Key risk
If customer growth exceeds 30%, it could significantly alter market perceptions and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around HubSpot's ability to maintain its growth amidst competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
A customer growth rate exceeding 25% would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
A churn rate above 10% would signal potential issues in customer retention.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.23%
Historical Avg
±2.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±15.2% while HUBS has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
64.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of -2.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.52%
of float
Insider
3.69%
of float
Holders
901
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
4,370,465 sh · $962.7M
8.76%
-5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If HubSpot beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react neutrally as investors reassess growth prospects.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock value, with history indicating an average drop of around 2.71%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Churn Rate
Expected to remain stable.A lower churn rate suggests better customer retention, which is crucial for long-term growth.
Blackrock Inc.
3,459,461 sh · $762.0M
6.94%
-15.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,511,352 sh · $553.2M
5.04%
-12.2%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
2,418,126 sh · $532.6M
4.85%
48.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,226,554 sh · $490.4M
4.47%
-2.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.