Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 13, 2026
EPS actual
$0.74
EPS est.
$0.76
EPS surprise
-1.99%
1-day move
-4.01%
Hawkins, Inc. reported an EPS that exceeded expectations, but the lack of revenue figures and absence of management commentary may have raised concerns among investors. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 4.01%, likely reflecting uncertainty about future performance and the absence of guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.74 | $0.69 | +7.2% |
| Revenue | N/A | $255M | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Hawkins, Inc. is a key player in the materials sector, specifically in commodity chemicals. The company is involved in the distribution and manufacturing of various chemical products, which are essential for a range of industries. As the economy evolves, Hawkins' performance can reflect broader trends in manufacturing and industrial demand.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Hawkins reported an EPS of $0.69, which was below the expected $0.74, marking a 7.38% miss. The stock reacted slightly positively the next day, gaining 0.07%.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-3.14%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.58%
Analysts expect Hawkins to report an EPS of $0.69 and revenue of $255 million for Q4-2026. Given the recent earnings misses, there is cautious sentiment surrounding the results.
Bull case
If Hawkins can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate a rebound in demand and improved operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if Hawkins misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges and declining market demand, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.69Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well Hawkins is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$255MRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Hawkins' products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Hawkins' EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.69?
A beat on EPS could signal improved profitability and operational strength, which is crucial given recent earnings misses.
Q2
What does management say about revenue growth in key segments?
Insights into revenue performance will help investors gauge demand trends and the company's market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Hawkins' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as the company has historically shown resilience in challenging market conditions.
Supporting evidence
Despite recent misses, Hawkins has a history of strong operational performance when market conditions improve.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.
Recent trends in the commodity chemicals sector suggest a recovery in demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If Hawkins reports an EPS above $0.75, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as Hawkins has missed earnings expectations in recent quarters, and investor sentiment is cautious.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.59 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.8%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.8%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.8% while HWKN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.1%
30d HV
29.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Materials
Fade rate: 11 of 26 (42%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 11 of 26 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
79.66%
of float
Insider
4.17%
of float
Holders
431
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
3,160,135 sh · $418.3M
15.14%
1.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Hawkins beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, potentially around a 0.84% increase in stock price.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should Hawkins miss expectations again, history indicates an average decline of around 0.79%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
1,428,012 sh · $189.0M
6.84%
-6.4%
State Street Corporation
1,061,843 sh · $140.6M
5.09%
1.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
854,478 sh · $113.1M
4.09%
0.3%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
547,510 sh · $72.5M
2.62%
5.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.