Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
International Paper Co (IP) is a leading global producer of paper and packaging products, operating in the materials sector. The company plays a crucial role in the supply chain for various industries, providing essential products for packaging and shipping.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for International Paper's products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
38%
Avg EPS Surprise
+168.76%
Avg Stock Reaction
-3.22%
In Q4-2025, International Paper reported an EPS of -$0.08, significantly missing expectations of $0.28. This disappointing performance led to a 6% drop in stock price the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about International Paper's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, given the company's recent struggles, there is a significant focus on whether they can meet or exceed these expectations.
Bull Case
If International Paper can deliver better-than-expected earnings and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet the low expectations set by analysts, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.
EPS
$0.14Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$6.0BRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for International Paper's products.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Can International Paper achieve an EPS of at least $0.14?
This figure is critical as it will indicate whether the company is beginning to recover from its recent losses and manage costs effectively.
Q2
Will revenue meet or exceed the $6.0B consensus?
Revenue performance is essential for assessing demand for the company's products and overall market health.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand for packaging products, especially as economic conditions stabilize.
Supporting Evidence
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened uncertainty.
International Paper's recent investments in efficiency could lead to better-than-expected margins.
The company has historically shown resilience in recovering from downturns, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key Risk
If EPS comes in above $0.14, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether International Paper can stabilize its earnings and revenue after a series of disappointing quarters.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.14 or higher would confirm a positive turnaround in profitability.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.06 would suggest ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±13.53%
Historical Avg
±6.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.5% while IP has averaged ±6.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
45.0%
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If International Paper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.15%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting ongoing caution among investors.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 7.65%, reinforcing negative sentiment in the market.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Nov 18, 2025 · disclosed Dec 15, 2025
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Nov 3, 2025 · disclosed Dec 11, 2025
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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