Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.15
EPS est.
$0.18
EPS surprise
-14.77%
1-day move
-9.41%
International Paper's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, which contributed to a significant stock decline of 9.4%. The lack of revenue data and guidance updates leaves investors uncertain about the company's future performance. Overall, the results indicate potential challenges ahead for the company.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.15 | $0.14 | -14.77% |
| Revenue | N/A | $6.0B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
International Paper Company (IP) is a leading global producer of paper and packaging products. Operating in the materials sector, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain for various industries, particularly as demand for sustainable packaging solutions continues to grow.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, International Paper reported an EPS of -$0.08, significantly missing estimates. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 6% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+191.80%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.02%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about International Paper's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, recent performance has raised concerns about the company's ability to meet these targets.
Bull case
If the company can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, given the recent history of earnings surprises.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.14Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$6.0BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.14?
This will be a critical indicator of whether the company is on a recovery path or continuing its downward trend.
Q2
What revenue figure will the company report compared to the $6.0B consensus?
Revenue performance is essential for assessing overall demand and the company's market position, impacting future growth outlook.
Est. EPS
$1.21
Est. Rev
$34.9B
Impl. Move
±5.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand for packaging products, especially with increasing consumer focus on sustainability.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Recent insider activity suggests some confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent earnings misses.
Key risk
If the company reports revenue significantly above $6.0B, it could shift the narrative towards recovery.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether International Paper can recover from its recent earnings misses and improve its financial health.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.14 or better would confirm a positive turnaround.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.06 would reinforce concerns about ongoing profitability issues.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.51%
Historical Avg
±7.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.5% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
1.4%
30d HV
36.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.49%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
1,198
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
78,469,265 sh · $2.5B
14.82%
-0.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If International Paper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.15%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 7.65%, further eroding investor confidence in the company's recovery.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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9.62%
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45,497,485 sh · $1.4B
8.59%
-7.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
34,552,688 sh · $1.1B
6.52%
0.7%
State Street Corporation
32,999,909 sh · $1.1B
6.23%
7.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.