Equity Profile

IP

International Paper Company

MaterialsPaper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials$16.9B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

International Paper Company Misses on EPS, Stock Down 9.4%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.15	$0.14	-14.77%
Revenue	N/A	$6.0B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

International Paper Company Misses on EPS, Stock Down 9.4%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.15	$0.14	-14.77%
Revenue	N/A	$6.0B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

International Paper's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, which contributed to a significant stock decline of 9.4%. The lack of revenue data and guidance updates leaves investors uncertain about the company's future performance. Overall, the results indicate potential challenges ahead for the company.

Company Snapshot

International Paper Company (IP) is a leading global producer of paper and packaging products. Operating in the materials sector, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain for various industries, particularly as demand for sustainable packaging solutions continues to grow.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.14

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for assessing growth.

$6.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+170.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, International Paper reported an EPS of -$0.08, significantly missing estimates. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 6% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about International Paper's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, recent performance has raised concerns about the company's ability to meet these targets.

Bull Case

If the company can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, given the recent history of earnings surprises.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.14

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$6.0B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.14?

This will be a critical indicator of whether the company is on a recovery path or continuing its downward trend.

What revenue figure will the company report compared to the $6.0B consensus?

Revenue performance is essential for assessing overall demand and the company's market position, impacting future growth outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand for packaging products, especially with increasing consumer focus on sustainability.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent insider activity suggests some confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent earnings misses.

Key Risk

If the company reports revenue significantly above $6.0B, it could shift the narrative towards recovery.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether International Paper can recover from its recent earnings misses and improve its financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.14 or better would confirm a positive turnaround.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.06 would reinforce concerns about ongoing profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.51%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.5% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

1.4%

30d HV

36.9%

Calls (362K)P/C Ratio: 1.10Puts (151K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If International Paper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.15%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 7.65%, further eroding investor confidence in the company's recovery.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies to improve profitability.
2Insights into demand trends for packaging products, particularly in sustainable materials.
3Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and pricing power.
4Details on operational efficiencies that could enhance margins.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the business.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.14

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for assessing growth.

$6.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+170.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, International Paper reported an EPS of -$0.08, significantly missing estimates. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 6% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, given the recent history of earnings surprises.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.14

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$6.0B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.14?

This will be a critical indicator of whether the company is on a recovery path or continuing its downward trend.

What revenue figure will the company report compared to the $6.0B consensus?

Revenue performance is essential for assessing overall demand and the company's market position, impacting future growth outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand for packaging products, especially with increasing consumer focus on sustainability.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent insider activity suggests some confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent earnings misses.

Key Risk

If the company reports revenue significantly above $6.0B, it could shift the narrative towards recovery.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether International Paper can recover from its recent earnings misses and improve its financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.14 or better would confirm a positive turnaround.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.06 would reinforce concerns about ongoing profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.51%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.5% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

1.4%

30d HV

36.9%

Calls (362K)P/C Ratio: 1.10Puts (151K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If International Paper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.15%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 7.65%, further eroding investor confidence in the company's recovery.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies to improve profitability.
2Insights into demand trends for packaging products, particularly in sustainable materials.
3Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and pricing power.
4Details on operational efficiencies that could enhance margins.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the business.