Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.04
EPS est.
$-0.04
EPS surprise
+211.11%
1-day move
+1.20%
International Paper Company reported a significant miss on EPS, coming in at $0.04 compared to the expected $0.32. Despite this, the stock rose by 1.2% following the earnings report, indicating that investors may have reacted positively to other factors not detailed in the earnings call. The lack of revenue data further complicates the analysis of the company's performance this quarter.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.04 | $0.32 | +211.11% |
| Revenue | — | $6.4B | — |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
International Paper Company is a leading producer of paper and packaging products, playing a crucial role in the materials sector. With a market cap of $22 billion, it is significant in the paper and plastic packaging industry, which is influenced by trends in consumer spending and sustainability efforts.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, International Paper reported an EPS of $0.15, falling short of the expected $0.18. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 9.41% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+191.80%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.02%
Analysts expect a modest recovery in Q2-2026, with a consensus EPS of $0.32 and revenue of $6.4 billion. Investors are keen to see if the company can meet these expectations after a series of disappointing results.
Bull case
If International Paper meets or exceeds expectations, it could signal a turnaround in profitability and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses again, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage costs and demand, leading to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.32Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$6.4BRevenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for International Paper's products, which is vital for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.32?
This will be a critical indicator of the company's profitability and ability to recover from previous misses.
Q2
What are the management's insights on revenue trends and demand for their products?
Understanding revenue drivers will help gauge the company's performance in the current market environment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the impact of recent cost-cutting measures and operational efficiencies that could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
Historical data shows that the company has occasionally surprised positively despite recent misses.
The options market indicates a significant potential move, suggesting traders are anticipating a larger reaction than usual.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $0.31, it could undermine the current optimistic sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report is crucial as it will determine whether International Paper can stabilize its performance after several disappointing quarters.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.32 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.31 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.7%
Historical Avg
±7.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.7% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
53.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.49%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
1,198
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
78,469,265 sh · $2.5B
14.82%
-0.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If International Paper beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.15%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 9.00%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ongoing challenges.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.