Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 15, 2026
EPS actual
$2.90
EPS est.
$2.85
EPS surprise
+1.90%
1-day move
-2.69%
Johnson & Johnson reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but the stock fell by 2.69% following the announcement. The revenue figure was not disclosed, which may have contributed to investor uncertainty. Overall, the mixed results may lead to cautious sentiment among investors.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.90 | $2.84 | +1.90% |
| Revenue | — | $25.0B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a leading healthcare company that develops and sells pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products. With a market cap of $632 billion, it plays a significant role in the healthcare sector, especially as global demand for health solutions continues to rise.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Johnson & Johnson reported an EPS of $2.70, beating estimates by 1.09%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.90% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.55%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.43%
Analysts expect Johnson & Johnson to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.84 and revenue of $25.0 billion.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and negatively impact the stock.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$2.84EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.
Revenue
$25.0BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Johnson & Johnson's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.84?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger than expected profitability and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Future revenue guidance will be crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$1.15
Est. Rev
$178M
Impl. Move
±7.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for JNJ to exceed EPS expectations due to strong sales in its pharmaceutical segment.
Supporting evidence
Historical performance shows JNJ has consistently beaten EPS estimates, achieving a 100% beat rate in the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent trends in healthcare spending indicate a potential uptick in demand for JNJ's products.
Key risk
If the pharmaceutical segment shows unexpected strength, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is keenly focused on both EPS and revenue growth as indicators of Johnson & Johnson's ongoing performance and market health.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm strong profitability and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.70 would raise concerns about the company's ability to maintain growth.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.37%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.4% while JNJ has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
19.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
76.73%
of float
Insider
0.05%
of float
Holders
5,795
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
212,098,264 sh · $54.8B
8.80%
-0.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If JNJ beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +1.22%, confirming strong demand and profitability.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a downside reaction, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around -0.48%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
7
2 buys·5 sells
Members
4
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$7,007.00–$105,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
157,226,374 sh · $40.6B
6.52%
0.4%
State Street Corporation
133,776,025 sh · $34.6B
5.55%
0.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
64,370,816 sh · $16.6B
2.67%
1.4%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
59,086,417 sh · $15.3B
2.45%
-0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
2 trades
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 8, 2026 · disclosed Oct 5, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 27, 2026 · disclosed Sep 12, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 20, 2026 · disclosed Sep 11, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 29, 2026 · disclosed Jul 15, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.