Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$0.55
EPS est.
$0.67
EPS surprise
-18.15%
1-day move
-1.71%
Kodiak Gas Services reported an EPS of $0.55, which was below expectations, resulting in a stock decline of 1.71%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves investors with limited insights into the company's performance and future outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.55 | N/A | -18.15% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) operates in the energy sector, specifically providing equipment and services for oil and gas operations. With a market cap of $6 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supporting the energy industry, which is currently influenced by fluctuating oil prices and a push for more sustainable energy solutions.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Kodiak reported an EPS of $0.59, surpassing estimates by 10.28%, which led to an 8.43% increase in stock price the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-9.30%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.31%
Overall expectations for Kodiak's upcoming earnings are mixed, given the lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its positive momentum from the last quarter.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on Kodiak continuing to beat EPS estimates and showing strong revenue growth, which could indicate robust demand for its services.
Bear case
Conversely, if Kodiak fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price, especially given the volatility in the energy sector.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
The EPS figure will be critical in assessing Kodiak's profitability and ability to meet market expectations.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?
Understanding revenue growth will provide insight into Kodiak's market position and demand for its services.
—
Est. EPS
$0.18
Est. Rev
$434M
Impl. Move
±5.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Kodiak's ability to capitalize on recent increases in energy demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter's EPS surprise indicates potential for continued strong performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant expected move, which could reflect higher volatility and opportunity.
Kodiak's operational efficiencies may not be fully accounted for in current estimates.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.65, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around Kodiak's ability to sustain its earnings growth in a challenging energy market.
Bull confirmed if
A strong EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.32%
Historical Avg
±2.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±18.3% while KGS has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
37.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$143,843.50
2,666 sh
1 insider
Net
$143,843.50
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$143,843.50
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.32%
of float
Insider
0.61%
of float
Holders
532
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
15,202,166 sh · $830.6M
15.00%
23.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Kodiak beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.82%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to minimal movement, as investors digest the commentary and guidance.
Miss
If Kodiak misses expectations, the stock could decline, with historical patterns showing an average drop of around 0.68%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $53.95
2,666 sh
$143,843.50
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Invesco Ltd.
8,058,162 sh · $440.3M
7.95%
-1.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,382,477 sh · $239.5M
4.32%
17.7%
State Street Corporation
4,126,523 sh · $225.5M
4.07%
20.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,128,008 sh · $225.6M
4.07%
113.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.