Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.3%
EPS beat rate
25%
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±8.7%
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates in the energy sector, specializing in oil and gas equipment and services. With a market cap of $6 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supporting energy production, which is vital for both economic growth and energy security.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Kodiak reported an EPS of $0.55, missing estimates by 18.15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.71% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-9.30%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.31%
Analysts are cautious about Kodiak's upcoming earnings, especially after recent misses. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.
Bull case
If Kodiak can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued misses on EPS and revenue could indicate deeper issues within the company or the energy sector, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.67EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Kodiak is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue trends will indicate demand for Kodiak's services and overall market conditions in the energy sector.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Kodiak achieve an EPS of at least $0.67 this quarter?
This is crucial as it will indicate whether the company is on a recovery path after recent earnings misses.
Q2
What are the revenue figures and growth expectations for the upcoming quarters?
Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and future prospects in the energy sector.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Kodiak's potential for a rebound in profitability, as recent operational changes could lead to improved margins.
Supporting evidence
Recent operational efficiency initiatives may not yet be reflected in analyst forecasts.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.
Kodiak's past performance shows a tendency to recover quickly after earnings misses.
Key risk
If EPS exceeds $0.67, it could shift sentiment dramatically, invalidating current bearish forecasts.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is watching closely for signs of recovery after a series of earnings misses, making this quarter pivotal for Kodiak.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.67 or higher, coupled with positive revenue growth, would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.55 and declining revenue would reinforce the bearish case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.35%
Historical Avg
±2.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.3% while KGS has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
49.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy
Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$143,843.50
2,666 sh
1 insider
Net
$143,843.50
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$143,843.50
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.32%
of float
Insider
0.61%
of float
Holders
532
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
15,202,166 sh · $830.6M
15.00%
23.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Kodiak beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.82%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a modest decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.15%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Operating Margin
This metric will help assess the efficiency of Kodiak's operations and its ability to control costs.
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $53.95
2,666 sh
$143,843.50
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
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4.32%
17.7%
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20.2%
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.