Equity Profile

KNF

Knife River Corporation

MaterialsConstruction Materials$3.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knife River Corporation is a major player in the construction materials sector, specializing in producing aggregates, asphalt, and ready-mix concrete. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company is significant in supporting infrastructure development, which is crucial for economic growth and recovery.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.14

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for construction materials, which can be influenced by market conditions.

$937M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Knife River reported an EPS of -$1.40, slightly better than the expected -$1.42, indicating some resilience despite challenges. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Knife River to report a modest recovery in earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.14. Investors will be watching closely to see if the company can meet or exceed these expectations.

Bull Case

If Knife River beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust demand in the construction sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about the sustainability of its recovery, potentially leading to a sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.14

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$937M

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for construction materials, which can be influenced by market conditions.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Knife River achieve an EPS of at least $1.14, and what factors contributed to this performance?

Meeting or exceeding EPS expectations could indicate strong operational performance, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the construction materials segment?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand in the construction market and the company's ability to capitalize on it.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in construction demand, particularly in infrastructure projects.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 8.76% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Knife River's recent history shows a 63% EPS beat rate, suggesting a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations than the market anticipates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $937 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knife River can sustain its recovery amidst fluctuating demand in the construction materials sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.14 or better, with revenue exceeding $937 million, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.09 or revenue falling short of $903 million would indicate ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.76%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while KNF has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.1%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knife River beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 5.69%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.92%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on major infrastructure projects that could drive demand for construction materials.
2Details on cost management strategies and how they are impacting margins.
3Insights into regional demand trends for construction materials.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on new contracts or projects that could influence future earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.14

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for construction materials, which can be influenced by market conditions.

$937M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.08%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Knife River to report a modest recovery in earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.14. Investors will be watching closely to see if the company can meet or exceed these expectations.

Bull Case

If Knife River beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust demand in the construction sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about the sustainability of its recovery, potentially leading to a sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.14

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$937M

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for construction materials, which can be influenced by market conditions.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Knife River achieve an EPS of at least $1.14, and what factors contributed to this performance?

Meeting or exceeding EPS expectations could indicate strong operational performance, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the construction materials segment?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand in the construction market and the company's ability to capitalize on it.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in construction demand, particularly in infrastructure projects.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 8.76% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Knife River's recent history shows a 63% EPS beat rate, suggesting a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations than the market anticipates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $937 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knife River can sustain its recovery amidst fluctuating demand in the construction materials sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.14 or better, with revenue exceeding $937 million, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.09 or revenue falling short of $903 million would indicate ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.76%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while KNF has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.1%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knife River beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 5.69%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.92%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on major infrastructure projects that could drive demand for construction materials.
2Details on cost management strategies and how they are impacting margins.
3Insights into regional demand trends for construction materials.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on new contracts or projects that could influence future earnings.