Equity Profile

KNF

Knife River Corporation

MaterialsConstruction Materials$4.2B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knife River Corporation is a leading provider of construction materials, primarily focused on aggregates and asphalt. Operating in the materials sector, the company plays a crucial role in infrastructure development, which is vital for economic growth and urban development.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Knife River is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate demand for Knife River's products and its ability to capture market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knife River reported an EPS of -$1.40, slightly beating expectations but still reflecting ongoing challenges. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.52% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of Knife River's earnings report, given the mixed performance in previous quarters. The focus will be on whether the company can return to profitability and show signs of revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Knife River can demonstrate a strong recovery in demand for construction materials and achieve profitability, it could lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement in earnings or revenue, it could reinforce concerns about its financial stability and lead to further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing whether the company is moving towards profitability and can meet or exceed market expectations.

How is Knife River addressing current demand challenges in the construction materials sector?

Understanding the company's strategy to capture demand will provide insight into its future revenue potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Knife River to capitalize on increased infrastructure spending, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected revenue recovery.

Supporting Evidence

The options market suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent trends in construction spending could provide a tailwind for Knife River's sales.

The company's ability to manage costs effectively could lead to improved margins despite revenue challenges.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above -$1.00, it could shift sentiment significantly and challenge bearish expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knife River can recover from recent losses and capitalize on any potential growth in construction demand.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to positive EPS, ideally above $0.50, would confirm a bullish outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$1.50 would reinforce bearish sentiment and concerns about the company's viability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.76%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while KNF has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.1%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knife River beats earnings expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.69%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

A disappointing earnings report could lead to a decline of about -3.92%, reaffirming concerns about the company's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on construction material demand trends and how they are impacting revenue.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness in improving margins.
3Insights into future projects or contracts that could drive growth.
4Management's outlook on the construction market and potential challenges ahead.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the construction materials sector.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Knife River is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate demand for Knife River's products and its ability to capture market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knife River reported an EPS of -$1.40, slightly beating expectations but still reflecting ongoing challenges. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.52% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Knife River can demonstrate a strong recovery in demand for construction materials and achieve profitability, it could lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement in earnings or revenue, it could reinforce concerns about its financial stability and lead to further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing whether the company is moving towards profitability and can meet or exceed market expectations.

How is Knife River addressing current demand challenges in the construction materials sector?

Understanding the company's strategy to capture demand will provide insight into its future revenue potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Knife River to capitalize on increased infrastructure spending, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected revenue recovery.

Supporting Evidence

The options market suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent trends in construction spending could provide a tailwind for Knife River's sales.

The company's ability to manage costs effectively could lead to improved margins despite revenue challenges.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above -$1.00, it could shift sentiment significantly and challenge bearish expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knife River can recover from recent losses and capitalize on any potential growth in construction demand.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to positive EPS, ideally above $0.50, would confirm a bullish outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$1.50 would reinforce bearish sentiment and concerns about the company's viability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.76%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while KNF has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.1%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knife River beats earnings expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.69%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

A disappointing earnings report could lead to a decline of about -3.92%, reaffirming concerns about the company's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on construction material demand trends and how they are impacting revenue.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness in improving margins.
3Insights into future projects or contracts that could drive growth.
4Management's outlook on the construction market and potential challenges ahead.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the construction materials sector.