Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 12, 2026
EPS actual
$0.11
EPS est.
$0.08
EPS surprise
+42.86%
1-day move
+6.22%
Karman Holdings Inc. reported earnings that met expectations for EPS, resulting in a positive stock reaction of 6.22%. The significant surprise in EPS indicates better-than-expected profitability, although no revenue figures were disclosed. Investors may view the EPS performance favorably, contributing to the stock's upward movement.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.11 | $0.11 | +42.86% |
| Revenue | — | $150M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Karman Holdings Inc. operates in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on providing innovative solutions for air travel and defense systems. With a market cap of $8 billion, the company plays a significant role in an industry that is increasingly influenced by advancements in technology and global defense spending.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Karman Holdings reported an EPS of $0.11, matching analyst expectations but showing a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting revenue expectations, which has affected investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
67%
Avg EPS surprise
+31.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.07%
Analysts expect Karman Holdings to report stable earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.11 and revenue of $150 million. Investors are particularly focused on whether the company can meet these expectations amidst a competitive landscape.
Bull case
If Karman can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings or revenue targets, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.11EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
$150MRevenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and market share.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Karman Holdings achieve an EPS of at least $0.11?
Meeting or exceeding the EPS estimate is critical for restoring investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the $150 million consensus?
Revenue performance is essential for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand, influencing future outlook.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.17
Est. Rev
$556M
Impl. Move
±11.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Karman's ability to leverage new contracts in the defense sector, which could drive revenue higher than expected.
Supporting evidence
Historical performance shows that Karman has a 50% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for upside surprises.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.
Recent industry trends indicate increased government spending on defense, which could benefit Karman.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $160 million, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on whether Karman can meet or exceed earnings and revenue expectations, which are critical for its growth narrative.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.13 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.03 would indicate significant challenges and could lead to a negative reassessment of the company's prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.03%
Historical Avg
±2.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 12%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±12.5% while KRMN has averaged ±2.9% over the last 6 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.7%
30d HV
56.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 6 of 18 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 18 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 7.1%, with a raw directional average of +2.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.57%
of float
Insider
6.87%
of float
Holders
495
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
6,868,619 sh · $215.6M
5.18%
-18.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Karman beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.3%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.5%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's growth prospects.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
5,448,737 sh · $171.0M
4.11%
9.8%
State Street Corporation
5,099,199 sh · $160.1M
3.85%
79.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,795,433 sh · $150.5M
3.62%
4.4%
First Trust Advisors LP
4,739,974 sh · $148.8M
3.58%
63.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.