Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.67
EPS est.
$0.73
EPS surprise
-7.71%
1-day move
-14.36%
LKQ Corporation is a leading distributor of automotive parts and accessories, focusing on providing high-quality replacement parts for vehicles. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, LKQ benefits from trends in vehicle maintenance and repair, which are influenced by consumer spending and vehicle age.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, LKQ met analysts' EPS expectations with a reported EPS of $0.67. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.18%
Avg 1-day reaction
-3.80%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about LKQ's upcoming earnings, expecting an EPS of $0.81 and revenue of $3.5 billion. The stock has shown volatility in response to earnings reports, making this quarter's results particularly significant.
Bull case
If LKQ exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its products, leading to positive market sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or fails to demonstrate revenue growth, it may raise concerns about its market position and profitability.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
0.81EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
3.5BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will LKQ report an EPS of $0.81 or higher?
Achieving or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What is the revenue figure for Q2-2026?
Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall financial health, influencing future expectations.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate LKQ's ability to capitalize on increased vehicle maintenance needs, especially given the aging vehicle fleet in the U.S.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown significant volatility in past earnings, indicating that market reactions may not fully reflect underlying demand trends.
Recent trends in consumer spending on automotive parts suggest a potential upside that analysts may not be fully accounting for.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current consensus view.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether LKQ can sustain its growth trajectory amid market fluctuations.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.81 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $3.5 billion, would confirm a strong demand for LKQ's products.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.69 or revenue below $3.4 billion would indicate potential weaknesses in the company's performance.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.47%
Historical Avg
±7.2%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.5% in either direction following the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±5.5% while LKQ has averaged ±7.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
46.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
110.59%
of float
Insider
0.37%
of float
Holders
711
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
38,552,815 sh · $849.3M
15.24%
4.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If LKQ beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.17% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
Should LKQ miss its targets, the average reaction indicates a potential decline of about 9.78%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Pzena Investment Management LLC
15,142,285 sh · $333.6M
5.99%
142.9%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
14,419,542 sh · $317.7M
5.70%
0.2%
Fuller & Thaler Asset Management Inc.
12,041,227 sh · $265.3M
4.76%
21.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
11,473,107 sh · $252.8M
4.53%
0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.