Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.7%
EPS beat rate
25%
The Macerich Company (MAC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in owning and managing retail properties, primarily shopping centers. As consumer spending patterns evolve, the performance of retail REITs like Macerich is closely tied to trends in retail sales and foot traffic.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Macerich reported an EPS of $0.32, slightly missing the estimate of $0.33. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.97% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.09%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.75%
Overall, expectations for Macerich's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors keenly watching for any signs of recovery in retail demand.
Bull case
If Macerich reports better-than-expected foot traffic and occupancy rates, it could signal a rebound in retail activity, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss EPS estimates and reports declining occupancy, it could raise concerns about the sustainability of its business model.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current occupancy rate and how does it compare to last quarter?
A stable or improving occupancy rate is crucial for revenue and can indicate the health of the retail environment.
Q2
How has foot traffic changed in the last quarter?
Foot traffic trends can provide insight into consumer behavior and the potential for tenant sales growth.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in foot traffic as consumers return to shopping centers, driven by pent-up demand.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a shift back to in-person shopping.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a surprise.
Mac's commitment to enhancing tenant engagement may lead to improved sales and occupancy.
Key risk
If foot traffic exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for Macerich's revenue.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus will be on how well Macerich is navigating the challenges in the retail sector and whether it can maintain or improve its occupancy rates.
Bull confirmed if
An occupancy rate above 95% would confirm strong demand for retail space and support a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
A drop in occupancy below 90% would raise significant concerns about the company's ability to generate revenue.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.67%
Historical Avg
±3.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, suggesting heightened uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±9.7% while MAC has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
19.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
113.71%
of float
Insider
0.35%
of float
Holders
510
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
54,737,438 sh · $1.2B
19.30%
18.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Macerich beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.4%, confirming a positive outlook for retail demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors weigh future risks.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.9%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the retail sector's recovery.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
31,461,342 sh · $698.1M
11.10%
30.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
27,314,692 sh · $606.1M
9.63%
6.8%
State Street Corporation
16,342,649 sh · $362.6M
5.76%
10.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
12,682,019 sh · $281.4M
4.47%
10.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.