Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 11, 2026
EPS actual
$-3.31
EPS est.
$-0.46
EPS surprise
-619.57%
1-day move
+3.48%
MARA Holdings reported a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns about its financial health. Despite this, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.48%. This could indicate that investors are looking beyond the earnings miss, possibly focusing on other factors or future potential.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-3.31 | $-0.51 | -619.57% |
| Revenue | — | $181M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
MARA Holdings, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the software sector, which is increasingly important as businesses continue to adopt digital solutions and automation.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, MARA reported an EPS of $-4.52, significantly missing expectations. This disappointing performance led to a 1.40% decline in stock price the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-215.86%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.59%
Analysts are cautious ahead of MARA's earnings report, with expectations of continued losses. The market is particularly focused on revenue growth and any signs of recovery.
Bull case
If MARA can exceed revenue expectations and narrow its losses, it could signal a turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
A larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue could reinforce concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$-0.51EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.51, which will be closely scrutinized.
Revenue
$181MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, with a consensus estimate of $181 million.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will MARA's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $181 million?
Revenue growth is crucial for demonstrating the company's ability to recover from recent losses and attract investor confidence.
Q2
How will management address the significant EPS loss of $-4.52 from the last quarter?
Understanding management's strategy to mitigate losses will be key for investors looking for signs of improvement.
—
Est. EPS
$0.97
Est. Rev
$693M
Impl. Move
±7.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate MARA's potential for revenue recovery, as previous quarters showed unexpected revenue spikes despite losses.
Supporting evidence
MARA has a history of surprising analysts with revenue figures, which could happen again this quarter.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $181 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a history of significant EPS misses, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth exceeding $181 million with a narrower EPS loss than expected could confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-0.51 and revenue below $163 million would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.45%
Historical Avg
±3.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.
Options are pricing ±11.2% while MARA has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.3%
30d HV
67.1%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$308,606.10
27,505 sh
1 insider
Net
$308,606.10
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$308,606.10
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
75.97%
of float
Insider
0.79%
of float
Holders
556
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
64,095,643 sh · $664.0M
16.59%
7.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MARA beats expectations, history suggests a potential average 1-day move of +2.95%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average 1-day move of -0.27%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $11.22
27,505 sh
$308,606.10
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
27,399,926 sh · $283.9M
7.09%
3.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
16,544,675 sh · $171.4M
4.28%
1.2%
State Street Corporation
15,901,746 sh · $164.7M
4.12%
4.5%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
10,872,917 sh · $112.6M
2.81%
5.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.