Equity Profile

MARA

MARA Holdings, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$4.7B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS will indicate the company's profitability and how well it is managing its costs, especially after a challenging previous quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial to assess the company's ability to expand its market share and attract new customers.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MARA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software. The company is significant as it develops and provides software solutions that cater to various industries, potentially benefiting from trends in digital transformation and cloud computing.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-219.27%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, MARA reported an EPS of -$3.31, significantly missing estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.48% the following day despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings.
Plans to explore new market opportunities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has a history of significant EPS surprises, both positive and negative. Investors are keen to see if management can stabilize performance after recent volatility.

Bull Case

If MARA can show a strong recovery in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, attracting more investors and boosting stock prices.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued losses and poor revenue performance could lead to further declines in stock value, especially given the high implied volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the company's recent history of large EPS surprises, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.

What specific revenue growth figures can management provide?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially after previous misses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in MARA's earnings, as recent insider selling could indicate a strategic repositioning rather than a lack of confidence.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 32.41% move, suggesting the market anticipates significant volatility.

The company's history of large EPS surprises indicates that expectations may be misaligned with actual performance potential.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in better than -$2.00, it could shift the narrative significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal for MARA as it seeks to regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS improvement to less than -$2.00 would indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$4.00 would confirm ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.41%

Historical Avg

±3.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty around the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while MARA has averaged ±3.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

62.1%

Calls (6.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.18Puts (2.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 28 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology

n=28

Fade rate: 8 of 28 (29%)

This setup has occurred 28 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 20 of 28 (71%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 8.4%, with a raw directional average of +3.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.0M

85,595 sh

3 insiders

Net

$1.0M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

General CounselNowaid Zabi
$505,080.00
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MARA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating a potential drop of around 0.5%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their expected impact on profitability.
2Details on new product launches or enhancements that could drive revenue.
3Insights into market conditions and competitive landscape affecting growth.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue projections.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent insider selling and its implications.

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Company Snapshot

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS will indicate the company's profitability and how well it is managing its costs, especially after a challenging previous quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial to assess the company's ability to expand its market share and attract new customers.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MARA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-219.27%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, MARA reported an EPS of -$3.31, significantly missing estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.48% the following day despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings.
Plans to explore new market opportunities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If MARA can show a strong recovery in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, attracting more investors and boosting stock prices.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued losses and poor revenue performance could lead to further declines in stock value, especially given the high implied volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the company's recent history of large EPS surprises, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.

What specific revenue growth figures can management provide?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially after previous misses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in MARA's earnings, as recent insider selling could indicate a strategic repositioning rather than a lack of confidence.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 32.41% move, suggesting the market anticipates significant volatility.

The company's history of large EPS surprises indicates that expectations may be misaligned with actual performance potential.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in better than -$2.00, it could shift the narrative significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal for MARA as it seeks to regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS improvement to less than -$2.00 would indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$4.00 would confirm ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.41%

Historical Avg

±3.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty around the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while MARA has averaged ±3.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

62.1%

Calls (6.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.18Puts (2.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 28 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology

n=28

Fade rate: 8 of 28 (29%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.0M

85,595 sh

3 insiders

Net

$1.0M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

General CounselNowaid Zabi
$505,080.00
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MARA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating a potential drop of around 0.5%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their expected impact on profitability.
2Details on new product launches or enhancements that could drive revenue.
3Insights into market conditions and competitive landscape affecting growth.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue projections.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent insider selling and its implications.