Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-1.60
EPS est.
$-0.56
EPS surprise
-185.71%
1-day move
-5.25%
MARA's disappointing earnings report reflects the impact of falling Bitcoin prices on their revenue and profitability. The stock dropped 5.25% following the news, indicating investor concern over the company's financial performance. However, the planned expansion of their power portfolio and upcoming acquisitions may position the company for future growth despite current challenges.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-1.60 | $-0.43 | -185.71% |
| Revenue | $174.9 million | $210 million | N/A |
| Bitcoin Mined | 2,422 BTC | N/A | +64 BTC YoY |
| Total Bitcoin Held | 35,577 BTC | N/A | N/A |
Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the declining Bitcoin prices but emphasized their commitment to expanding their power capabilities. They also highlighted the upcoming acquisition that is expected to bolster their financial position.
MARA's revenue decline was primarily driven by a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.
The company is focused on expanding its power portfolio to support future growth.
MARA Holdings, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software. As a company in a rapidly evolving industry, it plays a significant role in shaping how software solutions are developed and utilized, particularly in the context of growing demand for digital solutions and technological innovation.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, MARA reported an EPS of $-3.31, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.48% the following day despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-215.86%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.59%
Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for MARA, with a consensus EPS of $-0.43 and revenue of $210M. The market is closely watching how the company addresses its ongoing profitability issues.
Bull case
If MARA can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of narrowing losses, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
If the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports wider losses, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.43Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$210MRevenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will MARA's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $210M?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the company's ability to recover from prior losses.
Q2
Can the company narrow its EPS loss to meet or beat the consensus of $-0.43?
A smaller loss could indicate improved operational efficiency and may positively influence investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±27.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate MARA's potential for revenue growth due to recent product launches that have not been fully factored into projections.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience in past quarters despite disappointing EPS, indicating underlying strength.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, which could reflect investor anticipation of positive surprises.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $210M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will indicate whether MARA can stabilize its financials after a series of disappointing results.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth exceeding $210M with a narrower EPS loss of $-0.43 or better would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-0.43 and revenue below $210M would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±32.41%
Historical Avg
±3.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±32.4% while MARA has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
62.1%
Cross-company pattern from 28 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 8 of 28 (29%)
This setup has occurred 28 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 20 of 28 (71%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 8.4%, with a raw directional average of +3.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$308,606.10
27,505 sh
1 insider
Net
$308,606.10
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$308,606.10
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
75.97%
of float
Insider
0.79%
of float
Holders
556
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
64,095,643 sh · $664.0M
16.59%
7.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MARA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.1%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a drop of about 0.5% on average.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $11.22
27,505 sh
$308,606.10
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
27,399,926 sh · $283.9M
7.09%
3.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
16,544,675 sh · $171.4M
4.28%
1.2%
State Street Corporation
15,901,746 sh · $164.7M
4.12%
4.5%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
10,872,917 sh · $112.6M
2.81%
5.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.