Equity Profile

MDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$11.7B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for serious diseases, particularly in the liver health space....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health. Investors will closely watch this metric to gauge how well Madrigal is managing its expenses relative to its revenue.

$-1.12

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products. This quarter's revenue expectations will help investors assess growth potential.

$401M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDGL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for serious diseases, particularly in the liver health space. With a market cap of $12 billion, the company is positioned in the health care sector, which is increasingly important as the global population ages and chronic diseases become more prevalent.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-932.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Madrigal reported an EPS of $-3.25, which was better than analysts' expectations of $-3.61, resulting in a positive stock reaction of 7.42% the next day. However, the revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Madrigal to report a loss this quarter, but there is cautious optimism due to the company's history of beating earnings estimates. The consensus revenue figure indicates a solid performance, but the market will be watching closely for any signs of growth.

Bull Case

If Madrigal can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal that the company is on the right track with its product pipeline and could lead to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Madrigal fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its financial health and future prospects, potentially leading to a stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.12

Revenue

$401M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products. This quarter's revenue expectations will help investors assess growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-1.12?

A positive EPS surprise could boost investor confidence and lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could raise concerns about the company's financial health.

What revenue figure will Madrigal report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $401M?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its products, which can significantly impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Madrigal's ability to surprise on the upside given its recent history of beating EPS estimates despite challenging conditions.

Supporting Evidence

Madrigal has a 75% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating a strong potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders anticipate significant volatility.

The company's recent performance shows a pattern of recovering from negative surprises, which may not be fully reflected in current consensus.

Key Risk

If Madrigal's revenue exceeds $411M, it could significantly challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Madrigal's financial performance will improve, as indicated by the consensus estimates, or if challenges will persist.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-1.12 and revenue exceeding $401M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.12 and revenue below $385M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.88%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while MDGL has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.7%

Calls (800)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Madrigal beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 6.18%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Madrigal misses estimates, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.64%, raising concerns about its future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the progress of key drug candidates in the pipeline.
2Management's commentary on market demand and competitive landscape.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiencies.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and product launches.
5Any potential partnerships or collaborations that could impact growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for serious diseases, particularly in the liver health space....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.12

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products. This quarter's revenue expectations will help investors assess growth potential.

$401M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDGL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-932.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.22%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

Bear Case

Conversely, if Madrigal fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its financial health and future prospects, potentially leading to a stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.12

Revenue

$401M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products. This quarter's revenue expectations will help investors assess growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-1.12?

A positive EPS surprise could boost investor confidence and lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could raise concerns about the company's financial health.

What revenue figure will Madrigal report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $401M?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its products, which can significantly impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Madrigal's ability to surprise on the upside given its recent history of beating EPS estimates despite challenging conditions.

Supporting Evidence

Madrigal has a 75% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating a strong potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders anticipate significant volatility.

The company's recent performance shows a pattern of recovering from negative surprises, which may not be fully reflected in current consensus.

Key Risk

If Madrigal's revenue exceeds $411M, it could significantly challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Madrigal's financial performance will improve, as indicated by the consensus estimates, or if challenges will persist.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-1.12 and revenue exceeding $401M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.12 and revenue below $385M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.88%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while MDGL has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.7%

Calls (800)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Madrigal beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 6.18%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Madrigal misses estimates, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.64%, raising concerns about its future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the progress of key drug candidates in the pipeline.
2Management's commentary on market demand and competitive landscape.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiencies.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and product launches.
5Any potential partnerships or collaborations that could impact growth.