Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.67
EPS est.
$0.61
EPS surprise
+9.66%
1-day move
+1.95%
Mondelez International's strong EPS performance, exceeding expectations, led to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 1.95%. The company did not provide revenue figures or future guidance, leaving some uncertainty. However, management's comments suggest a commitment to growth and efficiency, which may reassure investors.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.67 | $0.61 | +9.66% |
| Revenue | N/A | $9.8B | N/A |
Management expressed satisfaction with the EPS results, highlighting effective cost management. They emphasized ongoing efforts to strengthen their market position.
We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.
Our focus remains on driving growth in key markets.
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading global snack company known for its popular brands like Oreo and Cadbury. Operating in the consumer staples sector, Mondelez plays a significant role in the packaged foods industry, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and preferences for convenient snacks.
Last quarter
In the last quarter (Q4-2025), Mondelez reported an EPS of $0.72, beating estimates by 3.15%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.33% the next day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.44%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.27%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Mondelez's upcoming earnings, expecting it to meet or slightly exceed EPS and revenue estimates.
Bull case
If Mondelez delivers strong sales growth driven by new product launches and effective marketing, it could exceed expectations and see a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company faces challenges such as rising costs or weaker consumer demand, it may miss expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.61Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Mondelez is managing costs and generating profits.
Revenue
9.8BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is crucial for understanding growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Mondelez's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $9.8 billion?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its products.
Q2
How will management address cost pressures and their impact on profit margins?
With rising costs in the industry, insights into how Mondelez plans to manage expenses will be crucial for investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Mondelez's ability to leverage new product launches and marketing strategies, which could drive stronger sales than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Mondelez has a history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a significant surprise.
Recent trends in consumer preferences towards snacks could favor Mondelez's product lineup.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $9.4 billion, it could challenge the optimistic growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Mondelez's ability to balance growth with cost management, especially in a competitive environment.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue figure above $9.8 billion, indicating strong consumer demand and effective product strategies.
Bear confirmed if
Revenue falling below $9.4 billion, suggesting weaker sales and potential challenges in the market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.4%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.4% while MDLZ has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
23.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 11 of 24 (46%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 11 of 24 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.0%, with a raw directional average of +1.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.44%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
2,484
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
105,969,321 sh · $6.3B
8.30%
0.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mondelez beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.97%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 2.25%, as seen in past quarters when expectations were not met.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
83,858,130 sh · $5.0B
6.57%
0.6%
Capital Research Global Investors
69,663,227 sh · $4.1B
5.46%
2.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
60,744,872 sh · $3.6B
4.76%
-2.2%
State Street Corporation
59,579,607 sh · $3.5B
4.67%
-3.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 5, 2026 · disclosed Aug 10, 2026
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