Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.30
EPS est.
$0.47
EPS surprise
-36.17%
1-day move
+4.82%
Methanex's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, rising 4.82%, possibly due to market factors or investor sentiment unrelated to the earnings results. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.30 | $0.42 | -36.17% |
| Revenue | N/A | $978M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is a leading producer of methanol, a key ingredient in various industrial applications, including plastics and chemicals. Operating in the materials sector, Methanex plays a vital role in the commodity chemicals industry, which is influenced by global demand and supply dynamics.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Methanex reported an unexpected loss of $-0.14 per share, significantly missing analyst expectations. This performance followed a trend of mixed results in previous quarters, raising concerns about the company's profitability.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+14.16%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.56%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Methanex's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the company has struggled with profitability in recent quarters, leading to mixed sentiments among investors.
Bull case
If Methanex can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS of $0.42, it may signal a turnaround in profitability and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could reinforce concerns about its operational efficiency and lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.42Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$978MRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for methanol.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Methanex achieve an EPS of $0.42 or higher?
This figure is crucial for assessing the company's recovery from previous losses and will likely influence investor sentiment.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook for the methanol market?
Understanding the revenue performance will provide insights into demand trends and the company's market position.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in methanol demand, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing an 8.5% move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with the consensus outlook.
Methanex's historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests a stronger likelihood of exceeding expectations.
Key risk
If methanol prices rebound significantly, the entire earnings narrative could shift positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is keenly focused on whether Methanex can stabilize its earnings after a series of disappointing results.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm a positive shift in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.15 would suggest ongoing challenges and could lead to further declines.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.48%
Historical Avg
±2.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation among traders.
Options are pricing ±8.5% while MEOH has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
65.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.47%
of float
Insider
7.39%
of float
Holders
331
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
M&G Plc
12,345,576 sh · $745.8M
15.96%
-0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Methanex beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.8%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about future performance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.7%, reinforcing concerns about the company's operational challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Boston Partners
4,168,956 sh · $251.8M
5.39%
52.8%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
3,968,620 sh · $239.7M
5.13%
-11.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,110,285 sh · $127.5M
2.73%
8.8%
Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc.
1,917,382 sh · $115.8M
2.48%
-1.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.