Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±25.4%
EPS beat rate
80%
McGraw Hill, Inc. is a leading provider of educational materials and services, primarily in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The company plays a critical role in the education services industry, focusing on delivering content and technology solutions to enhance learning experiences.
Last quarter
In Q1-2027, McGraw Hill reported an EPS of $0.59, exceeding expectations by 24.21%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by nearly 17% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
80%
Avg EPS surprise
+186.20%
Avg 1-day reaction
+5.32%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about McGraw Hill's upcoming earnings, especially given their strong performance in the previous quarter.
Bull case
If McGraw Hill continues to outperform expectations, it could signal robust demand for its educational products, potentially leading to significant stock gains.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of slowing revenue growth or increased competition could lead to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2027?
A strong EPS could indicate continued profitability and growth, while a weak EPS might raise concerns about the company's future performance.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?
Revenue trends will be crucial for understanding market demand and the effectiveness of McGraw Hill's strategies.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of McGraw Hill's recent investments in digital learning solutions, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
The company's previous EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting market uncertainty that may not align with actual performance.
Historical trends show that McGraw Hill has consistently beaten EPS expectations.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment in the market.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
Investors are closely watching both EPS and revenue growth as indicators of McGraw Hill's performance and market position.
Bull confirmed if
EPS growth of at least 20% year-over-year would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
Any decline in revenue growth compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±25.36%
Historical Avg
±11.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±25.4% while MH has averaged ±11.0% over the last 5 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
43.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.56%
of float
Insider
0.44%
of float
Holders
155
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Platinum Equity Advisors, LLC/DE
165,160,216 sh · $2.2B
86.33%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If McGraw Hill beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 8.1%, confirming strong market demand.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 5.8%, raising concerns about its competitive position.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
American Century Companies Inc
4,477,614 sh · $58.7M
2.34%
7.2%
Blackbarn Capital Partners LP
2,450,000 sh · $32.1M
1.28%
17.3%
Blackrock Inc.
1,741,124 sh · $22.8M
0.91%
-5.3%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
1,668,132 sh · $21.9M
0.87%
11.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.