Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Est. EPS
$1.09
Est. revenue
$1.3B
Implied move
±8.9%
EPS beat rate
0%
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) operates in the industrial sector, specializing in manufacturing and supplying various industrial machinery and components. The company plays a crucial role in sectors like construction and plumbing, which are essential for economic growth and infrastructure development.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Mueller Industries reported an EPS of $1.13, slightly above expectations, and the stock rose by 5.65% the following day. The company continues to show resilience in a challenging market environment.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.00%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.41%
Analysts expect Mueller Industries to report stable earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.09 and revenue of $1.3 billion. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its profitability amidst fluctuating material costs.
Bull case
If Mueller can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its products and lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its earnings target or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate current economic challenges.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$1.09EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$1.3BRevenue reflects the overall sales performance and market demand for Mueller's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Mueller achieve an EPS of $1.09 or better?
This EPS figure is crucial as it will indicate the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the current economic climate?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand for Mueller's products and the overall health of the industrial sector.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Mueller to exceed its EPS target due to strong demand in the construction sector, which has been resilient despite broader economic challenges.
Supporting evidence
Mueller's historical performance shows a tendency to beat EPS estimates, as seen in the last two quarters.
The options market's implied move of 6.28% suggests that investors are bracing for significant news, which could lead to a positive surprise.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds $1.3 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will provide insights into how well Mueller Industries is navigating economic pressures and maintaining profitability.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS above $1.09 and revenue exceeding $1.3 billion would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.09 or revenue falling short of $1.3 billion would signal potential challenges in the current market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.28%
Historical Avg
±6.8%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 6.28% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±8.9% while MLI has averaged ±6.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
26.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 10 of 30 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 20 of 30 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.8% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
94.44%
of float
Insider
2.12%
of float
Holders
946
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
23,388,186 sh · $1.4B
10.57%
0.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mueller beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.75%, confirming strong market demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 6.75%, as investors reassess the company's growth prospects.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
First Trust Advisors LP
13,664,782 sh · $822.9M
6.18%
22.1%
FMR, LLC
11,027,358 sh · $664.1M
4.99%
205.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
9,982,914 sh · $601.2M
4.51%
0.3%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
9,937,488 sh · $598.4M
4.49%
0.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.