Health Care·Biotechnology·$20.1B
Moderna Inc (MRNA) is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics. With a market cap of $21 billion, it plays a significant role in the healthcare sector, especially in response to infectious diseases and potential future pandemics.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
4Q
EPS Beat Rate
88%
Avg EPS Surprise
+31.12%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.41%
In Q4 2025, Moderna reported an EPS of $-2.11, which was better than analysts' expectations of $-2.60, resulting in a positive stock reaction. However, revenue details were not disclosed.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect a challenging quarter for Moderna, with a consensus EPS of $-2.90 and revenue of $248 million. The company has been under pressure due to declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines.
Bull Case
If Moderna can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of recovery in vaccine demand or new product developments, it could lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports worse-than-expected earnings and revenue, it may signal ongoing struggles, leading to further declines in stock price.
EPS
$-2.90Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.
Revenue
$248MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-2.90?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved financial health and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue compared to the consensus of $248 million?
Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing demand for Moderna's products and future growth potential.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is overly pessimistic about Moderna's revenue potential, as the company may have new developments or partnerships that are not being factored in.
Supporting Evidence
Historically, Moderna has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting potential for upside surprise.
The options market indicates a significant expected move, which may reflect investor uncertainty rather than outright pessimism.
Key Risk
If Moderna announces new product developments or partnerships that significantly boost revenue, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the potential for recovery in demand against ongoing challenges in the biotechnology sector.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $-2.50 or better, along with revenue exceeding $300 million, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS worse than $-3.50 and revenue below $200 million would confirm the bear case.
Implied Move
±19.55%
Historical Avg
±7.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±19.6% while MRNA has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 2% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.35% on the first day, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
ROBINHOOD MKTS INC Class A
Apr 28, 2026