Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, May 1, 2026
EPS actual
$-3.40
EPS est.
$-3.02
EPS surprise
-12.58%
1-day move
-1.24%
Moderna's earnings report shows a larger-than-expected loss per share, which contributed to a slight decline in the stock price. Investors were likely disappointed by the EPS miss, as revenue figures were not disclosed. The lack of guidance further adds uncertainty to the company's outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-3.40 | $-2.90 | -12.58% |
| Revenue | N/A | $248M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a crucial role in the health care sector, especially in response to infectious diseases and other medical challenges.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Moderna reported an EPS of $-2.11, which was better than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.29% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+27.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.19%
Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for Moderna, with a consensus EPS loss of $-2.90 and revenue of $248 million. The company has had a mixed track record in recent quarters.
Bull case
If Moderna can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of recovery in its core business, it could lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Continued losses and lower-than-expected revenue could signal deeper issues within the company, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-2.90Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus shows a significant loss.
Revenue
$248MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $248 million?
Revenue performance is critical to assess the company's market demand and overall health, especially after recent losses.
Q2
What is the outlook for EPS given the consensus estimate of $-2.90?
The EPS figure will indicate how well the company is managing costs and whether it can return to profitability.
—
Est. EPS
$2.65
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±9.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a revenue rebound, as recent product developments could drive sales higher than expected.
Supporting evidence
Recent earnings surprises indicate that the company can outperform expectations.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for volatility.
Moderna's ongoing innovations in mRNA technology could lead to unexpected revenue streams.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $248 million, it could shift market sentiment significantly.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the potential for recovery against the backdrop of recent financial struggles.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue exceeding $248 million and a smaller EPS loss than expected would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-2.90 and revenue below $248 million would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.25%
Historical Avg
±4.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±9.2% while MRNA has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.6%
30d HV
45.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
80.47%
of float
Insider
7.34%
of float
Holders
1,096
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
51,859,891 sh · $10.2B
12.99%
13.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.35%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as the market digests the implications of the results.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.35%, indicating a negative market reaction.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
30,599,409 sh · $6.0B
7.66%
3.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
23,208,792 sh · $4.6B
5.81%
1.5%
Capital World Investors
22,276,996 sh · $4.4B
5.58%
19.1%
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
18,206,778 sh · $3.6B
4.56%
-8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 24, 2026 · disclosed Oct 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 19, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 19, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.