Equity Profile

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$25.4B

Jul31Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

$-2.04

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, particularly in the wake of recent vaccine developments.

$104M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MRNA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. With a market cap of $25 billion, it plays a significant role in the health care sector, particularly in the ongoing evolution of vaccine technology and treatments for various diseases.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moderna reported an EPS of $-3.40, missing estimates by 12.58%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.24% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for Moderna, with a consensus EPS of $-2.04 and revenue of $104 million. The company has struggled to meet earnings expectations in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Moderna can exceed EPS estimates and show signs of revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for its products, particularly as new mRNA applications are explored.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports worse-than-expected earnings and revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the market, leading to further declines in investor confidence.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.04

Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

Revenue

$104M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, particularly in the wake of recent vaccine developments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $104 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for its products and could impact investor sentiment significantly.

Can Moderna narrow its EPS loss to better than the consensus of $-2.04?

A smaller loss than expected could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which investors will closely watch.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Moderna to rebound, as recent innovations in mRNA technology could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 16.5% move, indicating higher volatility expectations that may not align with the consensus outlook.

Moderna has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $120 million, it could challenge the current negative sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Moderna's ability to recover from recent financial struggles and demonstrate growth in both revenue and profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue of over $120 million would confirm strong demand and operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-2.11 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.5%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of 16.5%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

55.7%

Calls (790K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (624K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests the stock could move up by an average of 4.55%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.06%, as investors reassess the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new mRNA product developments and their market potential.
2Any guidance on future revenue streams beyond COVID-19 vaccines.
3Insights into cost management strategies and operational efficiency improvements.
4Comments on competitive positioning in the biotechnology space.
5Details on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

$-2.04

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, particularly in the wake of recent vaccine developments.

$104M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MRNA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moderna reported an EPS of $-3.40, missing estimates by 12.58%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.24% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for Moderna, with a consensus EPS of $-2.04 and revenue of $104 million. The company has struggled to meet earnings expectations in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Moderna can exceed EPS estimates and show signs of revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for its products, particularly as new mRNA applications are explored.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports worse-than-expected earnings and revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the market, leading to further declines in investor confidence.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.04

Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

Revenue

$104M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, particularly in the wake of recent vaccine developments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $104 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for its products and could impact investor sentiment significantly.

Can Moderna narrow its EPS loss to better than the consensus of $-2.04?

A smaller loss than expected could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which investors will closely watch.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Moderna to rebound, as recent innovations in mRNA technology could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 16.5% move, indicating higher volatility expectations that may not align with the consensus outlook.

Moderna has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $120 million, it could challenge the current negative sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Moderna's ability to recover from recent financial struggles and demonstrate growth in both revenue and profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue of over $120 million would confirm strong demand and operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-2.11 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.5%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of 16.5%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

55.7%

Calls (790K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (624K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests the stock could move up by an average of 4.55%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.06%, as investors reassess the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new mRNA product developments and their market potential.
2Any guidance on future revenue streams beyond COVID-19 vaccines.
3Insights into cost management strategies and operational efficiency improvements.
4Comments on competitive positioning in the biotechnology space.
5Details on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.