Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Est. EPS
$1.02
Est. revenue
$1.5B
Implied move
±5.1%
EPS beat rate
100%
Nasdaq, Inc. operates financial exchanges and provides data services, playing a crucial role in the global financial markets. As a major player in the financial sector, it facilitates trading and offers market insights, making it important for investors and companies alike.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Nasdaq reported an EPS of $1.07, exceeding expectations by 9.07%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.53% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.23%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.42%
Analysts expect Nasdaq to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, with a consensus EPS of $1.02 for Q3 2026. The market is closely watching revenue growth amid fluctuating trading volumes.
Bull case
If Nasdaq exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust market activity and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if Nasdaq fails to meet expectations or reports stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about market demand and competitive pressures, leading to a negative reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
1.02Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
1.5BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's overall growth and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Nasdaq's EPS exceed $1.02?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and signal strong operational performance.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook given current trading volumes?
Understanding revenue growth is crucial as it reflects market demand and the company's competitive position.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Nasdaq to leverage increased trading volumes, especially given recent market volatility.
Supporting evidence
Nasdaq has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a trend of stronger-than-expected performance.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential surprises.
The recent uptick in trading activity could translate into better revenue than anticipated.
Key risk
If trading volumes significantly exceed expectations, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in revenue forecasts.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely tied to market conditions and trading activity, which have been variable.
Bull confirmed if
Earnings per share exceeding $1.02 with revenue growth aligned with or above the consensus of $1.5B.
Bear confirmed if
Earnings per share falling below $0.99 or revenue significantly underperforming the $1.5B mark.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.12%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 5%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.1% while NDAQ has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
23.1%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
86.99%
of float
Insider
11.00%
of float
Holders
1,539
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Investor AB
58,439,208 sh · $5.4B
10.45%
0.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Nasdaq beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.42%, confirming strong market performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating a potential drop of around 1.71%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$101,002.00–$265,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
37,194,072 sh · $3.4B
6.65%
-2.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
31,225,614 sh · $2.9B
5.59%
-0.0%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
30,332,286 sh · $2.8B
5.43%
-16.4%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
26,091,520 sh · $2.4B
4.67%
-0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 25, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Apr 24, 2026 · disclosed May 6, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.