Equity Profile

NIC

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.

FinancialsRegional Banks$3.7B

Jul14Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$2.91

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the overall business growth and market demand for Nicolet's services.

$140M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking. As part of the financial sector, its performance can reflect broader economic trends and consumer spending patterns.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Nicolet reported an EPS of $2.75, which was below the expected $2.98, resulting in a negative surprise of 7.72%. The stock experienced a slight decline of 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Nicolet to report earnings that are slightly above last quarter's results, with a consensus EPS of $2.91. The market is looking for signs of recovery after a recent earnings miss.

Bull Case

If Nicolet can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a rebound in profitability and investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.91

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$140M

Revenue figures help gauge the overall business growth and market demand for Nicolet's services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.91?

The market will closely watch this figure, as a beat could indicate a recovery in profitability after last quarter's miss.

What are the revenue expectations for this quarter?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the bank's operational performance and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in EPS and revenue, given the bank's historical performance.

Supporting Evidence

Nicolet has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Despite the recent miss, the bank's fundamentals remain solid, indicating potential for growth.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that the market is anticipating significant movement.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $2.79, it could undermine the positive sentiment surrounding the bank's recovery.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Nicolet can regain investor confidence after a recent earnings miss.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS above $2.91 and revenue exceeding $140M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.79 or revenue under $136M would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.27%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.58%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality metrics.
2Management's outlook on interest rates and their impact on profitability.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into customer demand and market conditions in the banking sector.

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Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$2.91

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the overall business growth and market demand for Nicolet's services.

$140M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Nicolet reported an EPS of $2.75, which was below the expected $2.98, resulting in a negative surprise of 7.72%. The stock experienced a slight decline of 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Nicolet to report earnings that are slightly above last quarter's results, with a consensus EPS of $2.91. The market is looking for signs of recovery after a recent earnings miss.

Bull Case

If Nicolet can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a rebound in profitability and investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.91

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$140M

Revenue figures help gauge the overall business growth and market demand for Nicolet's services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.91?

The market will closely watch this figure, as a beat could indicate a recovery in profitability after last quarter's miss.

What are the revenue expectations for this quarter?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the bank's operational performance and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in EPS and revenue, given the bank's historical performance.

Supporting Evidence

Nicolet has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Despite the recent miss, the bank's fundamentals remain solid, indicating potential for growth.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that the market is anticipating significant movement.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $2.79, it could undermine the positive sentiment surrounding the bank's recovery.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Nicolet can regain investor confidence after a recent earnings miss.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS above $2.91 and revenue exceeding $140M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.79 or revenue under $136M would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.27%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.58%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality metrics.
2Management's outlook on interest rates and their impact on profitability.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into customer demand and market conditions in the banking sector.