Equity Profile

NIC

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.

FinancialsRegional Banks$3.0B

Jul14Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and insurance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for assessing bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and insurance. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in local economies where it operates.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported an EPS of $2.75, missing estimates by 7.72%. The stock reacted slightly negatively, declining by 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Nicolet Bankshares are mixed, given the recent EPS miss and the lack of analyst estimates for the upcoming quarter.

Bull Case

If the bank can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could signal robust financial health and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank continues to miss EPS estimates and shows weak loan growth, it may raise concerns about its profitability and market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent EPS miss, the market will be closely watching for any signs of recovery or continued weakness.

How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?

Loan growth is critical for the bank's revenue, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in loan growth, which could significantly boost EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Nicolet has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historically realized, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent trends in regional banking suggest a rebound in lending activity, which could benefit Nicolet.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in EPS forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the bank's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth metrics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery from the previous quarter's miss.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet Bankshares beats EPS expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 0.27%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see minor fluctuations.

Miss

If the bank misses earnings again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.58%, which could further erode investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and how they compare to prior quarters.
2Management's outlook on net interest margin and its impact on profitability.
3Insights into customer demand for banking services in the current economic environment.
4Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
5Updates on strategic initiatives that could drive future growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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More Earnings This Week

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Fastenal Company

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and insurance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for assessing bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported an EPS of $2.75, missing estimates by 7.72%. The stock reacted slightly negatively, declining by 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Nicolet Bankshares are mixed, given the recent EPS miss and the lack of analyst estimates for the upcoming quarter.

Bull Case

If the bank can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could signal robust financial health and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank continues to miss EPS estimates and shows weak loan growth, it may raise concerns about its profitability and market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent EPS miss, the market will be closely watching for any signs of recovery or continued weakness.

How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?

Loan growth is critical for the bank's revenue, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in loan growth, which could significantly boost EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Nicolet has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historically realized, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent trends in regional banking suggest a rebound in lending activity, which could benefit Nicolet.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in EPS forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the bank's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth metrics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery from the previous quarter's miss.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet Bankshares beats EPS expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 0.27%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see minor fluctuations.

Miss

If the bank misses earnings again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.58%, which could further erode investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and how they compare to prior quarters.
2Management's outlook on net interest margin and its impact on profitability.
3Insights into customer demand for banking services in the current economic environment.
4Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
5Updates on strategic initiatives that could drive future growth.