Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
EPS actual
$2.99
EPS est.
$2.96
EPS surprise
+0.91%
1-day move
+0.53%
Nicolet Bankshares reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a slight increase in the stock price by 0.53%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat positively, but the lack of revenue data could lead to cautious sentiment going forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.99 | $2.91 | +0.91% |
| Revenue | — | $140M | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services to individuals and businesses. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in supporting local economies through lending and deposit services.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported an EPS of $2.75, which was below the expected $2.98, resulting in a negative surprise of 7.72%. The stock reacted slightly down by 0.58% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.91%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.34%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Nicolet Bankshares' upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue after a miss last quarter.
Bull case
If the bank can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and profitability.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.91Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$140MTotal revenue reflects the bank's ability to generate income from its operations.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.91?
A beat on EPS could restore investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss.
Q2
What will management say about revenue growth compared to the consensus of $140M?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the bank's operational strength and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the bank's ability to rebound from the last quarter's miss, especially given its historical EPS beat rate of 88%.
Supporting evidence
The bank has a strong track record of exceeding EPS estimates in previous quarters.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
The put/call ratio indicates a bearish sentiment that may not align with the bank's recovery potential.
Key risk
If the bank's revenue growth exceeds $140M, it could significantly shift investor sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching how Nicolet Bankshares performs against these key thresholds to gauge its financial health.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.00 or higher would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.79 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.65%
Historical Avg
±1.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
33.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
65.06%
of float
Insider
8.67%
of float
Holders
350
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
3,027,246 sh · $490.1M
14.44%
86.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Nicolet beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.27%, confirming positive momentum.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is given, the stock may react neutrally as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.58%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the bank's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
1,174,560 sh · $190.1M
5.60%
65.1%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
823,902 sh · $133.4M
3.93%
0.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
818,051 sh · $132.4M
3.90%
-0.2%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
504,741 sh · $81.7M
2.41%
10.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.