Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.78
Est. revenue
$561M
Implied move
±3.8%
EPS beat rate
88%
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities. As a significant player in the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in the housing market and interest rate environment, which can impact its performance and investor sentiment.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.79, exceeding expectations by 5.05%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.92%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.09%
Analysts expect Annaly to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.78 and revenue of $561 million. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current interest rate challenges.
Bull case
If Annaly beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong management and effective investment strategies, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage risks in a volatile market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.78Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Annaly has managed its investments in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Revenue
$561MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall performance and demand for its mortgage-backed securities.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.78?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in Annaly's management and investment strategy, especially in a challenging interest rate environment.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding revenue and market conditions?
Management's outlook on revenue and market conditions will be crucial for assessing future performance and investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Annaly's resilience in a rising interest rate environment, as its diversified portfolio could mitigate risks better than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational management.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened uncertainty that may not fully reflect Annaly's strengths.
Key risk
If Annaly's EPS exceeds $0.80, it could challenge the consensus view and shift investor sentiment positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate centers around Annaly's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating interest rates and economic conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.74 would support the bear case, indicating potential struggles in the current market environment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.78%
Historical Avg
±0.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±3.8% while NLY has averaged ±0.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
26.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
62.31%
of float
Insider
0.10%
of float
Holders
1,041
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
87,219,586 sh · $1.6B
11.57%
6.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.45%, confirming strong management performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the current market conditions.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -0.46%, raising concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
32,900,428 sh · $589.9M
4.37%
2.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
31,250,997 sh · $560.3M
4.15%
1.6%
State Street Corporation
29,426,379 sh · $527.6M
3.90%
4.5%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
20,823,764 sh · $373.4M
2.76%
4.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.