Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±45.6%
EPS beat rate
38%
NextNav Inc. is a technology company focused on providing advanced location services and applications. As part of the information technology sector, it plays a crucial role in enhancing navigation and positioning capabilities, which are increasingly important in various industries including transportation and smart devices.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, NextNav reported an EPS of -$0.24, which was worse than the expected -$0.15, leading to a significant stock increase of 15.55% the following day. The company continues to face challenges in achieving profitability.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-189.99%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.84%
Overall, expectations for NextNav's upcoming earnings are uncertain due to the lack of analyst estimates and mixed historical performance. Investors are likely looking for signs of improved financial metrics and customer growth.
Bull case
If NextNav can show significant revenue growth and a path toward profitability, it could boost investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, especially in terms of EPS and revenue, it may lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth is essential for demonstrating market demand and the effectiveness of NextNav's services.
Q2
Will NextNav provide guidance on achieving profitability in the near future?
Investors are keen to understand the company's timeline for profitability, which could significantly impact stock performance.
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±6.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for NextNav to achieve higher revenue growth due to increasing demand for location-based services across various industries.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 45.58% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.
The company's recent stock performance suggests that investors are still optimistic despite previous earnings misses.
Key risk
If NextNav can demonstrate a clear path toward profitability, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate revolves around NextNav's ability to achieve revenue growth and move towards profitability, which are critical for investor confidence.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of over 20% would confirm the bull case, indicating strong market demand.
Bear confirmed if
If EPS remains below -$0.30, it would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±45.58%
Historical Avg
±6.7%
The options market is pricing in a substantial move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility following the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±45.6% while NN has averaged ±6.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.1%
30d HV
54.6%
Cross-company pattern from 16 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Information Technology
Fade rate: 6 of 16 (38%)
This setup has occurred 16 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 10 of 16 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.4%, with a raw directional average of -2.0% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
60.99%
of float
Insider
23.26%
of float
Holders
304
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Fortress Investment Group LLC
18,167,792 sh · $230.9M
10.76%
28.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NextNav beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.47% based on past performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see minimal movement as investors digest the information.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.58%, as seen in past quarters when expectations were not met.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Clutterbuck Capital Management LLC
8,964,292 sh · $113.9M
5.31%
-3.6%
Blackrock Inc.
8,345,940 sh · $106.1M
4.94%
11.6%
Susquehanna Advisors Group, Inc
5,550,124 sh · $70.5M
3.29%
Flat
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,934,461 sh · $50.0M
2.33%
0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.