Equity Profile

NTRA

NATERA INC

Health CareBiotechnology$30.8B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Natera Misses on EPS, Stock Up 2.20%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.60	$-0.55	-12.78%
Revenue	—	$617M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Natera Misses on EPS, Stock Up 2.20%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.60	$-0.55	-12.78%
Revenue	—	$617M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Natera's earnings report showed a larger-than-expected loss per share, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 2.20%. This could indicate that investors are looking beyond the EPS miss, possibly focusing on other aspects of the company's performance or future potential.

Company Snapshot

Natera, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on genetic testing and diagnostics....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking to see if Natera can narrow its losses this quarter.

$-0.55

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for Natera as it reflects demand for its genetic testing services and overall business health.

$617M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Natera, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on genetic testing and diagnostics. With a market cap of $31 billion, it plays a significant role in the healthcare sector, particularly in prenatal testing and oncology, which are growing areas of interest in personalized medicine.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.61%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Natera reported an EPS of $-1.52, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 2.02%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Natera to report a narrower loss this quarter, with revenue growth being a focal point. The market is cautiously optimistic but remains wary due to past misses.

Bull Case

If Natera can beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.55

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking to see if Natera can narrow its losses this quarter.

Revenue

$617M

Revenue growth is crucial for Natera as it reflects demand for its genetic testing services and overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Can Natera achieve revenue of at least $617M this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target will be crucial for demonstrating growth and restoring investor confidence.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.55?

A narrower loss could indicate improved operational efficiency and market demand, which is vital for the stock's performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Natera's ability to leverage new testing technologies that could drive revenue growth beyond expectations this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has shown resilience with positive movements following earnings surprises in the past.

Options pricing suggests that traders are expecting a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Natera's recent focus on expanding its testing portfolio could yield better-than-expected results.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $633M, it could significantly shift market sentiment in favor of Natera.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing whether Natera can recover from previous earnings misses and show signs of sustainable growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $617M with EPS better than $-0.55 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.68 and revenue below $584M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.14%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.1% while NTRA has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

57.5%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (42K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$299,440.95

1,500 sh

1 insider

Net

$299,440.95

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Natera beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.43%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around +1.14% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into market demand for genetic testing services.
4Guidance on future quarters and any strategic shifts in focus.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the biotechnology space.

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Company Snapshot

Natera, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on genetic testing and diagnostics....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking to see if Natera can narrow its losses this quarter.

$-0.55

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for Natera as it reflects demand for its genetic testing services and overall business health.

$617M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.61%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Natera reported an EPS of $-1.52, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 2.02%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Natera to report a narrower loss this quarter, with revenue growth being a focal point. The market is cautiously optimistic but remains wary due to past misses.

Bull Case

If Natera can beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.55

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking to see if Natera can narrow its losses this quarter.

Revenue

$617M

Revenue growth is crucial for Natera as it reflects demand for its genetic testing services and overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Can Natera achieve revenue of at least $617M this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target will be crucial for demonstrating growth and restoring investor confidence.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.55?

A narrower loss could indicate improved operational efficiency and market demand, which is vital for the stock's performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Natera's ability to leverage new testing technologies that could drive revenue growth beyond expectations this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has shown resilience with positive movements following earnings surprises in the past.

Options pricing suggests that traders are expecting a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Natera's recent focus on expanding its testing portfolio could yield better-than-expected results.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $633M, it could significantly shift market sentiment in favor of Natera.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing whether Natera can recover from previous earnings misses and show signs of sustainable growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $617M with EPS better than $-0.55 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.68 and revenue below $584M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.14%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.1% while NTRA has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

57.5%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (42K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$299,440.95

1,500 sh

1 insider

Net

$299,440.95

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Natera beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.43%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around +1.14% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into market demand for genetic testing services.
4Guidance on future quarters and any strategic shifts in focus.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the biotechnology space.