Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±10.2%
EPS beat rate
75%
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on gas distribution. As a key player in providing natural gas services, it plays an essential role in energy supply, especially in the Pacific Northwest, where energy demand is significant.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, NWN reported an EPS of $0.01, which was below expectations. The stock saw a modest increase of 1.29% the following day, indicating some investor optimism despite the lack of substantial earnings.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+54.41%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.51%
Overall, expectations for NWN's upcoming earnings are uncertain due to the lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors are keenly awaiting any signs of improved profitability or revenue growth.
Bull case
If NWN can demonstrate a significant recovery in EPS and revenue, it may suggest strong operational management and increased demand for natural gas, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports disappointing earnings or continues to show weak revenue growth, it could raise concerns about its ability to compete in the utilities sector, leading to a negative stock reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the EPS for Q3-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing the company's profitability and operational efficiency, which are key to investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for Q3-2026?
Revenue will indicate the demand for natural gas services and the company's ability to grow in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in demand for natural gas services, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, as energy consumption trends upward.
Supporting evidence
NWN has a history of beating EPS estimates, with an 86% success rate in the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.
The recent increase in energy prices could positively impact NWN's revenue and margins.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds expectations due to increased demand, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing NWN's ability to recover from recent earnings disappointments against the backdrop of rising energy demand.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.01 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.89%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.2% while NWN has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
12.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
83.61%
of float
Insider
0.62%
of float
Holders
433
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,710,338 sh · $320.6M
15.94%
5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NWN beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.38%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see minimal movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.63%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,734,741 sh · $130.7M
6.50%
4.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,899,829 sh · $90.8M
4.51%
3.7%
State Street Corporation
1,730,864 sh · $82.7M
4.11%
7.8%
Vaughan Nelson Investment Management, L.P.
1,459,852 sh · $69.8M
3.47%
22.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.