Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±6.9%
EPS beat rate
100%
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
The New York Times Company (NYT) is a leading publisher known for its news and information services, primarily through its flagship newspaper and digital platforms. As part of the Communication Services sector, it plays a significant role in shaping public discourse and providing quality journalism amid increasing competition from digital media.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, The New York Times reported an EPS of $0.69, beating estimates by 2.99%. However, the stock fell 13.40% the next day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+11.43%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.97%
Overall, analysts expect The New York Times to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, but there are concerns about subscriber growth and advertising revenue.
Bull case
If the company reports strong subscriber growth and robust digital revenue, it could signal a successful transition to a digital-first model, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if subscriber growth stalls or advertising revenue declines, it could raise doubts about the company's long-term sustainability in a competitive media landscape.
Key metrics to watch
Subscriber Growth
10 million subscribersSubscriber numbers are crucial as they directly impact revenue and indicate the company's ability to attract and retain readers.
Advertising Revenue
$150 millionAdvertising revenue is a key driver of profitability, reflecting the company's effectiveness in monetizing its audience.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current subscriber count and growth rate?
Subscriber growth is critical for revenue stability and indicates the company's success in attracting and retaining readers in a competitive environment.
Q2
How did advertising revenue perform this quarter?
Advertising revenue is a major component of overall income, and any decline could signal challenges in monetizing their audience.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for digital revenue growth as The New York Times continues to innovate its offerings and attract a younger audience.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.
Options pricing suggests lower volatility than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger move than expected.
Recent trends in digital media consumption favor established brands like The New York Times, which could drive subscriber growth.
Key risk
If subscriber growth exceeds 10 million, it could significantly alter market perceptions and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on the company's ability to maintain subscriber growth and effectively monetize its audience through advertising.
Bull confirmed if
Subscriber growth exceeding 10 million and digital revenue surpassing $300 million would confirm a strong bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Subscriber growth falling below 9 million or advertising revenue declining significantly would confirm a bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.75%
Historical Avg
±7.9%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.75%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.9% while NYT has averaged ±7.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
38.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
95.76%
of float
Insider
11.29%
of float
Holders
829
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
15,741,591 sh · $1.0B
9.81%
4.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If The New York Times beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +8.31%, confirming strong market confidence.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, with management commentary driving the stock's movement as investors assess future growth prospects.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential average decline of -1.97%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Digital Revenue
$300 millionDigital revenue growth is essential for the company's transition from traditional print to online platforms.
Berkshire Hathaway, Inc
15,700,000 sh · $1.0B
9.78%
3.6%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
9,053,710 sh · $587.6M
5.64%
10.7%
Linonia Partnership LP
9,034,044 sh · $586.3M
5.63%
Flat
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
8,054,186 sh · $522.7M
5.02%
-14.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.