Equity Profile

ONON

On Holding AG

Consumer DiscretionaryFootwear$10.5B

Aug11Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

On Holding AG is a footwear company in the consumer discretionary sector, known for its innovative running shoes and athletic apparel. As consumer spending trends shift, the company's performance can reflect broader market dynamics in retail and fitness.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding how well the company is expanding its market share and attracting customers.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+5.26%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, On Holding reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly exceeding expectations by 65%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has shown strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, but the lack of guidance leaves uncertainty.

Bull Case

If On Holding continues its trend of exceeding EPS estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed $0.48 again this quarter?

A repeat of strong EPS could reinforce investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate On Holding's ability to leverage its brand strength and innovative products to drive higher sales, despite recent market challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect more volatility than what analysts predict.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS below $0.40, it could undermine the bullish narrative and lead to a reassessment of growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether On Holding can sustain its recent earnings momentum in a competitive retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued strong demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with sales or market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.07%

Historical Avg

±7.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.1% while ONON has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.4%

Calls (187K)P/C Ratio: 0.23Puts (307K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If On Holding beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.78%, confirming strong demand and management effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.37%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales trends in key markets.
2Insights into new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
3Updates on supply chain stability and its effect on production.
4Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the footwear industry.
5Details on marketing strategies aimed at boosting brand visibility.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding how well the company is expanding its market share and attracting customers.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+5.26%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, On Holding reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly exceeding expectations by 65%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has shown strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, but the lack of guidance leaves uncertainty.

Bull Case

If On Holding continues its trend of exceeding EPS estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed $0.48 again this quarter?

A repeat of strong EPS could reinforce investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate On Holding's ability to leverage its brand strength and innovative products to drive higher sales, despite recent market challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect more volatility than what analysts predict.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS below $0.40, it could undermine the bullish narrative and lead to a reassessment of growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether On Holding can sustain its recent earnings momentum in a competitive retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued strong demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with sales or market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.07%

Historical Avg

±7.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.1% while ONON has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.4%

Calls (187K)P/C Ratio: 0.23Puts (307K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If On Holding beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.78%, confirming strong demand and management effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.37%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales trends in key markets.
2Insights into new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
3Updates on supply chain stability and its effect on production.
4Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the footwear industry.
5Details on marketing strategies aimed at boosting brand visibility.