Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.18
EPS est.
$-0.07
EPS surprise
-146.58%
1-day move
-2.56%
Opendoor's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's profitability. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.56%. With no revenue reported and no guidance provided, uncertainty about future performance remains high.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.18 | $-0.06 | -146.58% |
| Revenue | — | $667M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Opendoor Technologies Inc. operates in the real estate sector, focusing on simplifying the home buying and selling process through technology. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company is part of a growing trend towards digital solutions in real estate, which has gained traction as consumers increasingly prefer online transactions.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Opendoor reported an EPS of $-1.26, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 0.43%, despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-182.72%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.45%
Analysts expect Opendoor to report a slight loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.06 and revenue around $667 million. The market is closely watching for any signs of improvement in profitability and sales.
Bull case
If Opendoor can beat EPS expectations and show revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses estimates again, it could raise concerns about its business model and sustainability in a competitive market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.06Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$667MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Opendoor achieve a revenue figure above $667 million?
This number is critical as it reflects the company's ability to generate sales and could influence investor sentiment.
Q2
Can Opendoor narrow its EPS loss closer to the consensus estimate of $-0.06?
A smaller loss could indicate improving operational efficiency and may reassure investors about the company's future.
—
Est. EPS
$0.97
Est. Rev
$754M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth due to increased demand for digital real estate solutions, which could drive better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing in a 13.33% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with current sentiment.
Opendoor's recent operational changes may not yet be fully reflected in analyst estimates, suggesting potential upside.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $667 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market perceptions.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Opendoor can demonstrate a path to profitability amidst ongoing market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue figure exceeding $667 million and an EPS loss of less than $-0.06 would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-0.06 and revenue below $653 million would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.33%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.3% while OPEN has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
3.2%
30d HV
64.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
57.94%
of float
Insider
4.90%
of float
Holders
485
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Morgan Stanley
115,205,390 sh · $261.5M
11.94%
12.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Opendoor beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.9%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 4.4%, raising concerns about its business model.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
76,214,771 sh · $173.0M
7.90%
8.8%
Blackrock Inc.
72,920,992 sh · $165.5M
7.56%
291.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
34,618,646 sh · $78.6M
3.59%
-2.6%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
24,951,742 sh · $56.6M
2.59%
102.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.