Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±4.8%
EPS beat rate
50%
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) operates in the energy sector, focusing on the storage and transportation of oil and gas. With a market cap of $17 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, which is vital for both domestic and global markets.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Plains All American reported an EPS of $0.41, slightly beating estimates by 2.5%. However, the stock fell 3.02% the next day, indicating mixed market reactions.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.11%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about PAA's upcoming earnings report, especially after a slight EPS beat last quarter. However, there are concerns about revenue performance and overall market conditions.
Bull case
If PAA can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its EPS, it could signal robust operational performance and attract more investor interest.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses on EPS or shows weak revenue growth, it may lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent negative reactions to earnings reports.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.
Q2
How does PAA plan to address revenue growth challenges?
Investors will be keen to hear about strategies for increasing revenue, especially in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
$1.57
Est. Rev
$23.0B
Impl. Move
±4.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating PAA's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected margins despite revenue challenges.
Supporting evidence
PAA has historically shown resilience in maintaining margins even during downturns.
The options market is pricing a larger move than what has been realized in the past, indicating potential for a surprise.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $0.45, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether PAA can sustain its profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.35 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.63%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 5.63%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.8% while PAA has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
14.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 17 of 30 (57%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 30 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
41.51%
of float
Insider
34.19%
of float
Holders
473
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Alps Advisors Inc.
70,510,853 sh · $1.7B
9.68%
-3.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PAA beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.11% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 2.63% based on historical patterns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Invesco Ltd.
33,326,777 sh · $802.8M
4.57%
-0.2%
Blackstone Inc
20,183,446 sh · $486.2M
2.77%
7.7%
Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd.
17,708,480 sh · $426.6M
2.43%
3.9%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
15,960,527 sh · $384.5M
2.19%
-3.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.