Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±10.8%
EPS beat rate
63%
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is a leading silver mining company focused on the exploration and production of precious metals. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly in gold and silver, which are often seen as safe-haven investments during economic uncertainty.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Pan American Silver reported an EPS of $0.73, falling short of expectations by 13.4%. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 1.14%.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+27.00%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.25%
Overall, investors are cautious about Pan American Silver's upcoming earnings due to the recent EPS miss, but there is hope for improved performance in production and cost management.
Bull case
If the company can report strong silver production and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if earnings continue to fall short and production levels remain stagnant, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected silver production volume for Q3-2026?
Given the recent fluctuations in silver prices, production volume will be crucial in determining the company's revenue and profitability.
Q2
How is the company addressing cost management to improve margins?
With rising operational costs, effective cost management strategies will be essential for maintaining profitability and investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in silver prices, which could positively impact Pan American's revenue and margins.
Supporting evidence
The recent increase in silver demand due to industrial applications may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility.
The company's historical ability to surprise on the upside during earnings calls could be overlooked.
Key risk
If silver prices rise significantly above current levels, it could invalidate bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Pan American Silver can effectively manage costs and increase production amid fluctuating silver prices.
Bull confirmed if
A silver production volume increase of 15% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A continued decline in EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.71%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.8% while PAAS has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
45.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 21 of 30 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
61.63%
of float
Insider
0.07%
of float
Holders
919
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Van Eck Associates Corporation
19,066,671 sh · $845.6M
4.61%
-11.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Pan American Silver beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.05%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see a muted reaction.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests an average decline of 0.60%, which could raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd.
15,588,063 sh · $691.3M
3.77%
1.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
11,523,430 sh · $511.1M
2.78%
0.7%
Blackrock Inc.
8,393,564 sh · $372.3M
2.03%
-4.5%
Capital International Investors
6,236,775 sh · $276.6M
1.51%
9.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.