Equity Profile

PAGP

Plains GP Holdings, L.P.

EnergyOil & Gas Storage & Transportation$5.0B

Aug7Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its operations and capture more market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PAGP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation. The company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, providing essential services for the movement and storage of hydrocarbons, which are vital for various industries.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.13%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.98%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, PAGP reported an EPS of $0.10, significantly missing expectations by 83.74%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.86% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the significant EPS misses in the previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of improvement in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If PAGP can demonstrate a rebound in earnings and revenue, it could signal a recovery in operations, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Continued poor performance in earnings could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose confidence in the company's ability to manage costs and grow revenue.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

A significant improvement in EPS could indicate a turnaround in profitability, which is crucial for investor confidence.

How is revenue expected to trend in the current quarter?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's operational health and market demand for its services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in earnings, given the recent volatility in oil prices and operational adjustments that could lead to improved margins.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

The recent trend of energy prices could positively impact revenue, contrary to the pessimistic outlook.

The company has made operational changes that may not yet be reflected in analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether PAGP can stabilize its earnings and show growth in revenue after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in managing costs and revenue.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.62%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.62%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.6% while PAGP has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (71K)P/C Ratio: 11.82Puts (237K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PAGP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could be influenced by management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around 1.95% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into market demand for oil and gas transportation services.
3Details on operational changes implemented since the last earnings report.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its operations and capture more market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PAGP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.13%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.98%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, PAGP reported an EPS of $0.10, significantly missing expectations by 83.74%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.86% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the significant EPS misses in the previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of improvement in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If PAGP can demonstrate a rebound in earnings and revenue, it could signal a recovery in operations, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Continued poor performance in earnings could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose confidence in the company's ability to manage costs and grow revenue.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

A significant improvement in EPS could indicate a turnaround in profitability, which is crucial for investor confidence.

How is revenue expected to trend in the current quarter?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's operational health and market demand for its services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in earnings, given the recent volatility in oil prices and operational adjustments that could lead to improved margins.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

The recent trend of energy prices could positively impact revenue, contrary to the pessimistic outlook.

The company has made operational changes that may not yet be reflected in analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether PAGP can stabilize its earnings and show growth in revenue after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in managing costs and revenue.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.62%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.62%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.6% while PAGP has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (71K)P/C Ratio: 11.82Puts (237K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PAGP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could be influenced by management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around 1.95% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into market demand for oil and gas transportation services.
3Details on operational changes implemented since the last earnings report.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the energy sector.