Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, Aug 7, 2026
EPS actual
$0.41
EPS est.
$0.42
EPS surprise
-3.53%
1-day move
-2.52%
The earnings report indicates that Plains GP Holdings fell short on EPS expectations, leading to a stock decline of 2.52%. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue data and guidance, which could signal uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.41 | N/A | -3.53% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation. As a key player in this industry, it plays a vital role in the supply chain, ensuring that energy products are efficiently moved from production sites to consumers.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Plains GP Holdings reported an EPS of $0.10, significantly lower than the expected $0.61, resulting in a negative surprise of 83.74%. The stock reacted by declining 1.86% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-38.57%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.91%
Overall, expectations for PAGP are cautious given the recent earnings misses and the lack of analyst estimates for this quarter. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery.
Bull case
If PAGP can show improved EPS and revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, continued earnings misses or weak revenue could further erode investor trust, leading to additional stock price declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
Given the significant misses in the last two quarters, the EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether the company is on a recovery path.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?
Revenue growth will be a key indicator of the company's operational health and market demand, influencing investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$1.47
Est. Rev
$3.4B
Impl. Move
±9.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in EPS and revenue, given the recent volatility in oil prices and demand recovery in the energy sector.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 3.62% move, but the stock has averaged only 1.98% over the last 8 quarters.
The put/call ratio indicates significant hedging activity, suggesting that some investors may be overly cautious.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.30, it could challenge the current negative sentiment and lead to a reassessment of growth potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether PAGP can turn around its recent performance after a series of disappointing earnings.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.30 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.62%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.62%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.6% while PAGP has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
24.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy
Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.04%
of float
Insider
2.77%
of float
Holders
416
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Tortoise Capital Advisors, LLC
11,116,796 sh · $291.4M
5.92%
-5.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PAGP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.98% on the day, confirming a positive shift in momentum.
In line / cautious
If results come in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.95%, reinforcing negative sentiment and concerns about the company's trajectory.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Energy Income Partners, LLC
9,045,863 sh · $237.1M
4.82%
0.8%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
8,930,864 sh · $234.1M
4.76%
-1.5%
Chickasaw Capital Management, LLC
8,630,172 sh · $226.2M
4.60%
-0.5%
Two Sigma Investments, LP
7,199,867 sh · $188.7M
3.83%
0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.